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#11
04-11-2005, 10:54 PM
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Re: Bottom set, a TON of action, slow down?
First off... I'm aware that "sets over sets" don't happen that often.
That said, Button certainly looks like he's holding KK. (The way I see it, there are only three other possibilities: AA or AK... likely A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], or 99). There are times when the hand action outweighs the "mathematical probability" of a hand... again, I'm leaning HEAVILY towards Button having a set of kings... IN WHICH CASE, YOU'RE DRAWING TO ONE OUT. (SB either has a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush draw, or paired King with a good kicker. Who the hell knows what MP2 has; probably a straight or flush draw.) EDIT: I change my original opinion. I just played around with some pokerstove numbers and Hero has a HUGE equity advantage over this field, even considering Button's range of hands.... I say keep raising this pot. Only slow down if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - that doesn't fill you up - falls on the river. Also, be cautious of a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the river. I'd still raise a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], but would just call if re-raised back. Adam 
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#12
04-11-2005, 10:58 PM
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Re: Bottom set, a TON of action, slow down?
good point about the flush draw..given his position relative to the betting..but it would have to be AQ or maybe Ajs given the 3 bet dont ya think?
Also im not sure the QQ-99 would really be jamming this flop and turn 'to punish the draws'..as you point out there are a lot of callers...QQ has to look pretty small by the turn. I cant see he'd 3 bet and continue to jam with anything giving 2 pr... that leaves (1)AA and he's in denial (real possibility) (2)AK..would think AK would slow down (3) KK (4) AQc AJc (5) 99-slim. what do you think? Brian
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#13
04-11-2005, 11:10 PM
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Re: Bottom set, a TON of action, slow down?
[ QUOTE ]
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB calls, MP2 calls, Hero.... [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts.... Three bet. If its capped, call it and crawl into the check call shell. Without decent reads, spewing chips with bottom set doesn't happen until the river. Stu
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#14
04-11-2005, 11:23 PM
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Re: Bottom set, a TON of action, slow down?
[ QUOTE ]
Three bet. If its capped, call it and crawl into the check call shell. [/ QUOTE ] Good suggestion. However, given Button's (albeit narrow) range of hands, I believe Hero still holds a large equity advantage here. Further, doesn't the presence of TWO other callers buffer the times when Button actually has KK or 99, and actually ADD to Hero's equity advantage? Adam
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#15
04-11-2005, 11:30 PM
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Re: Bottom set, a TON of action, slow down?
3-bet. You're supposed to lose a lot of money against a bigger set. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#16
04-12-2005, 01:47 AM
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Re: Bottom set, a TON of action, slow down?
While it is a rare occurance, being up against a bigger set is usually a big loss. However, the chances of you AND another players hitting a set on the flop is minimal (around 1%). The chances of them hitting a set on you AFTER the flop are 2/46+2/47= 8.6%. So, the chances of you hitting a set on the flop and having to pay off a bigger set are small (9.6% of the time when you hit your set). And that is IF you are sure they have a big pair. I think you need to be worried more about 4 card straights and 4 flushes destroying your set than you do being 'out setted'
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