QQ - Party 15/30

[scrub]

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Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, CO calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (13.66 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (8.33 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>...

Your action.

Will

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I'm just curious--do you have the roll to be playing 15/30 regularly? The stats I have on you (which are all for times when you played a very small number of hands before getting up) are comically tight/weak. I might just have a skewed sample, but it's something you might want to look at...

scrub

[WillMagic]

Please do not take the following as facetious - it is sincere.

I do appreciate your concern.

I have the roll for 15/30 (i.e. +500 BB's) I just have been playing pretty sparsely recently - I've been doing other things, and when I do sit down to play it's not for a long stretch.

I think your statistics are off...as it stands I have a 19/12 with a 1.9 aggressiveness rating through ~80K hands. If I'm not optimal preflop I definitely think I'm on the loose side, to be frank.

In regard to the hand...I actually folded. (wow do I look weak-tight.) My reasoning at the time was thus: UTG+2's turn check-raise is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY to be a semi-bluff...and so what hands is he going to check-raise for value here? I really, really thought I was up against a set or a straight...or, possibly, a bizarrely played AA or KK.

So I folded and CO called. River blanked, UTG+2 bet and CO called, UTG+2 turned over 96 for two-pair and CO turned over JJ. So, based on the cards, a definite bad fold.

But I'm curious guys...you are all so certain about your answers, and yet I haven't seen you guys put down a range of hands for UTG+2. When I played the hand I couldn't put him on a hand other than a set, 87, AA or KK...well, now that I think of it, I would add T9. But do you guys really think he could be semi-bluffing here? In general? Or am I totally going psycho in narrowing down his range?

Will

[LAGmaniac]

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But do you guys really think he could be semi-bluffing here? In general?

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I would definitely not read a turn check-raise; into two players; out of position; in a protected pot; as a semi-bluff. He would have to be exceptionally retarded (not just Partytarded) to pull a move like this.

I also think it was exceptional that you were drawing as live as you were. More often than not you are drawing slim or dead so your fold seems pretty reasonable to me.

[sfer]

3-betting sucks, hard.

[PokerBob]

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3-betting sucks, hard.

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Agreed. CO is the least of our worries. Look closely at how UTG+2 has played his hand. Be afraid.

[PokerBob]

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No reads at all?

Since you have position on UTG+2, I like three-betting here. That will probably get CO to fold his AK, and depending on the river card you can decide if you want to value bet or take a free showdown.

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And when capped?

[SA125]

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But I'm curious guys...you are all so certain about your answers, and yet I haven't seen you guys put down a range of hands for UTG+2. When I played the hand I couldn't put him on a hand other than a set, 87, AA or KK...well, now that I think of it, I would add T9. But do you guys really think he could be semi-bluffing here? In general? Or am I totally going psycho in narrowing down his range?

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I would have called down and, much more often than not, wished I folded. I have to admit I think the amount of times when I look like I'm clearly ahead but know I'm somehow beat, I'm almost always beat.

I recently limped along with QJ from LP. On a Q84 x x board, someone who plays a lot and I play a lot against, was firing at the pot. I knew I had the best Q with a few flop callers, but could tell she was looking to 3 bet. She kept betting and I called it down. She had 84 from the BB. That catastrophic fold thing makes me wonder about how much you should just trust your instincts.

[CallMeIshmael]

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So I folded and CO called. River blanked, UTG+2 bet and CO called, UTG+2 turned over 96 for two-pair and CO turned over JJ. So, based on the cards, a definite bad fold.

But I'm curious guys...you are all so certain about your answers, and yet I haven't seen you guys put down a range of hands for UTG+2. When I played the hand I couldn't put him on a hand other than a set, 87, AA or KK...well, now that I think of it, I would add T9. But do you guys really think he could be semi-bluffing here? In general? Or am I totally going psycho in narrowing down his range?

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I think folding the turn is WAY better than 3-betting.

I said call down because I've heard (although I have no experience at) that the 15/30 game is hyper aggressive. Because of this, I would believe that this hand wins often enough at showdown to make calling down correct.

You have experience at the game, and you feel that this isn't the case. I feel folding has a lot of merit, and might be best. It all depends on your read.

3-betting, however, makes me want to vomit in my own mouth.

[DMBFan23]

Will,

I agree with your assessment of the situation, this would have to be the ballsiest semibluff EVER against a bettor and a caller. if you were heads up, then you could start thinking about calling down versus three betting for the freebie. but, IMO you have to give this dude some credit for raising the both of you when you are trapped. he wants callers.

of course this is without all that he knows I know that he knows crap, but I would never count on both players being capable of folding here.

[scrub]

The reason I ask is because I'm pretty sure UTG+2 in this hand was a complete maniac, or in the least far too erratic to consider a fold here.

I wouldn't have 3-bet, but if this happened at the table I think it did, folding is horrendous.

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