JJ on the button

[zaxx19]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it goes check, fold, fold.



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[BriPlay]

my opinion..
CHECK!!!
st8 or fl beat you..otherwise you win.
only callers are those who have you beat
thanks for the post
Brian

[BriPlay]

after performing no calculations whatever..i say RUN AWAY!!

[BriPlay]

Here Here!!
the call Preflop causes all the trouble you are in!

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling would be fine under most circumstances and I probably do just call a real raise, but raised first five hands + minraise = tool in my book so I reraise and then probably call a push. I don't mind playing it weaker if UTG isn't in the hand but I'd like this one HU.

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I don't think you can call a push if you reraise. You'd be calling something like 1800 into a pot of 2100 with JJ. Even though he might be a tool, there's still too large a chance he has QQ, KK, or AA.

[adanthar]

Whoops. For some reason I thought he had 1200 or something.

With 2K, I agree it's a fold. No reason not to reraise here, though, if only because if I call and undercards flop I lose a lot more than 200 when he has an overpair anyway.

[M.B.E.]

What was the result? (In each of the three parallel universes.)

[Che]

In the real hand, it was checked to me and I checked.

BB had 77 for the turned set while UTG+1 had KK (with [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

I think two lines for this hand are reasonable:

1. Raise PF and fold to UTG+1's reraise. If he flatcalls, I've got problems, but I probably don't lose as much as I did here.

2. Call PF and play no set/no bet post flop. This was my original mindset, but I should have checked behind on the turn if this was my approach (or better yet - folded the flop although a minraise sounds good now that MBE mentioned it). I tried to change ships midstream and got myself in trouble.

BTW I strongly suspected AA/KK from UTG+1, so his turn check was what threw me. I was planning to fold to his turn bet until he checked which tempted me to bet (and I succumbed to the temptation [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]).

As for scenarios 2 and 3, I think fold is clearly the way to go in both cases.

Thanks to all who replied,
Che

[M.B.E.]

It's not particularly surprising what your opponents were holding.

I gave it a bit more thought, and I think on the river it's very close between checking and pushing. A bluff can be correct even though it will probably not succeed.

The action up to now (including your opponents' river checks) makes it very unlikely that either of them has a flush. But your play on the flop and turn strongly suggests that you have a flush. In addition, with 4-5-6-7 on board they have to worry about a straight as well.

I think that if you had pushed on the river, there'd be about a 30% probability that you would pick up the pot (2670). Then let's say a 40% probability you lose 640 and a 30% probability you lose 1132. That's CEV of +205.

Whereas if you check, the probability your JJ is good is very small, I'd say about 5%. So the CEV of checking is +134.

I think that bluffing the river does have greater CEV, but it's close. Tournament considerations probably make this a check even though that is lower CEV.