MLB 4/9

[mrbaseball]

You really wanna bet the O's don't you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Actually this doesn't look too bad (O's +1.5 runs at +121). Last year the Yankees only won 77 games by more than one run (47%) and the O's only lost by 2 or more 62 times (38%). So the Yankees covered the runline less than half the time and the O's covered 2 out 3 times.

The kicker of course is Johnson at home. Johnson good frist time out. Not great but good and if not for Matsui's robbery of Millar who knows how the game would have unfolded?

Looking at the pitcher/batter charts gives no real optimism for the O's chances here. But the O's have a strong veteran hitting core (Sosa, Palmerio, Lopez Tejada etc) who may be able to take advantage of Johnson mistakes, if there are any. On the flipside if he's really on the freeswinging tendancies of Sosa and Tejada could make Johnson dominant here.

I'm not sold Johnson will be his dominating old self this season. I need to see him go a few more times. Last year he was on his game but at his age injuries can slow him and last time he pitched in AL he has a 4+ era.

But for me the bottom line is the O's are a major league ball team with probably a few hall of fame/allstar caliber players on their roster. They are GETTING runs and GETTING +121. They cover that 62% of the time last season and they only have to cover it 45% of the time to break even. The Yankees only cover it 47% of the time last year and need to cover it 55% of the time according to this line. Does the Chen/Johnson matchup skew it this far? I don't think so but I wouldn't bet the ranch. I'll make a small play on O's here but due to the matchup the edge probably isn't much although I feel there is a little.

[Tboner7]

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You really wanna bet the O's don't you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]



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lol. I already bet both. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Yes I have a problem and I know it. Dont flame me. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[shipdapaper]

great post Mr.Baseball

[scott8]

Agreed. This is the kind of analysis that makes this site worthwhile.

[RiverTheNuts]

I got in on OAK -1.5 (+110) .... zito is pitching and its against the D rays... nomo can be unhittable, but hopefully it goes my way

[Tboner7]

Figures. O's get Johnson but the bullpen can't hold it. I'm going to need my other 3 games to come through to keep this from being a really bad day.

[Paluka]

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Figures. O's get Johnson but the bullpen can't hold it. I'm going to need my other 3 games to come through to keep this from being a really bad day.

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You have to stop talking yourself into betting on the Orioles every day.

[Dead]

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Figures. O's get Johnson but the bullpen can't hold it. I'm going to need my other 3 games to come through to keep this from being a really bad day.

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You have to stop talking yourself into betting on the Orioles every day.

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Bingo. The Orioles have a fantastic offense, but zero pitching. Their only quality starter is Lopez, and the rest of them suck. And their bullpen is even worse.

[Tboner7]

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[ QUOTE ]
Figures. O's get Johnson but the bullpen can't hold it. I'm going to need my other 3 games to come through to keep this from being a really bad day.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to stop talking yourself into betting on the Orioles every day.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know. My worst decision was taking the under on Total Runs+hits+errors. That looks like something I'll be taking the over on more often this year. Or actually I should probably stay away from O's games completely. Adding the stress of having money on the line while watching the game makes it no fun. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

To get my money back I need:

Over runs+hits+errors on the Dbacks/Dodgers game (31)
Erickson and Vazquez are pitching, so that looks good

Zito to beat the Rays

And Anaheim to win by 2.


How do you think my chances are?

[RiverTheNuts]

I also parlayed the over 8.5 on the marlin/national game and the under 9 on the Oak/TB game