STEP 5. to push or not to push

[raptor517]

actually, if you fold here, you lose 45 dollars every single time. every bad player puts negative results on the cause of variance. of course its going to be swingy. thats how poker is. if you fold here, you are losing money. period. holla

[The Yugoslavian]

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Anyone who says push here doesn't understand proper use of aggression at the bubble. You may as well push every single hand you are first in at the bubble then, cuz this is the exact same thing. You need a better reason to push than, " But they're playing tight, right, so I can steal?".

I'd need at LEAST QJs or 66 to push here.

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I'm not sure having AQs here helps as much as you think, Dali (it certainly helps though).

FWIW I plugged this into the Easty toy and even if you give both SB and BB a range of something pretty loose like: 44+,A6+,KT+,QJs+ - it's still ~+$16 push here....and this was the loosish range I felt was possible...

I'd also be surprised that STEP 5 players are loose enough to make this an actually -$EV push.

Yugoslav

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who says push here doesn't understand proper use of aggression at the bubble. You may as well push every single hand you are first in at the bubble then, cuz this is the exact same thing. You need a better reason to push than, " But they're playing tight, right, so I can steal?".

I'd need at LEAST QJs or 66 to push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure having AQs here helps as much as you think, Dali (it certainly helps though).

FWIW I plugged this into the Easty toy and even if you give both SB and BB a range of something pretty loose like: 44+,A6+,KT+,QJs+ - it's still ~+$16 push here....and this was the loosish range I felt was possible...

I'd also be surprised that STEP 5 players are loose enough to make this an actually -$EV push.

Yugoslav

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Neither one of you are getting it.

WHy am I not surprised?

[Seadood228]

I get it, and I agree (btw me agreeing seems to be the kiss of death on this forum).

This is another situation where ICM is not perfect, and even if it is, the %EV change does not warrant this kind of risk IMO. I know it's between $10-$45, but %wise that's not enough..

Pushing is fundamentally correct, but I don't think it's the best play.

[EDIT] Where are all the responses from the guys who voted fold?!?!

[Daliman]

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actually, if you fold here, you lose 45 dollars every single time. every bad player puts negative results on the cause of variance. of course its going to be swingy. thats how poker is. if you fold here, you are losing money. period. holla

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Tell you what. ICM pushing every single hand on level 3 with 7 opponents, see what easty's tool says about that.

[raptor517]

all of the guys that voted fold play the 10+1s and have no reason other than its Q2o. holla

[Seadood228]

Hey man, I resemble that remark! I'll have you know that my 1k step ROI is 169%!

Ok so I've only played one, but I didn't play that well, and have no doubt in my mind that my numbers.. er number, is easily sustainable.. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Holla back.

[ilya]

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all of the guys that voted fold play the 10+1s and have no reason other than its Q2o. holla

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I voted fold. You've got two short stacks behind you, both of whom are under a lot of pressure not to surrender the blinds, and neither of whom can really feel that he can just outlast the other. Your hand is terrible hot-and-cold as you're basically never gonna be more than a small favorite, yet you will often be a considerable dog.
It is more +$EV to fold.

[The Yugoslavian]

What do you gain here by folding? You gotta gain something b/c you certainly are gaining something here by pushing (namely, $EV)...

So, what makes folding the most profitable play? Table image? The blinds knocking one of themselves out here a significant portion of the time? Or just the chance to push on the next hand or two vs. bigger stacks in the blinds (with the assumption that now pushing through several players will somehow net you more FE).

Yugoslav

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you gain here by folding? You gotta gain something b/c you certainly are gaining something here by pushing (namely, $EV)...

So, what makes folding the most profitable play? Table image? The blinds knocking one of themselves out here a significant portion of the time? Or just the chance to push on the next hand or two vs. bigger stacks in the blinds (with the assumption that now pushing through several players will somehow net you more FE).

Yugoslav

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The equity you would have gained from later pushes that you miss out on those times you get called and lose. The equity you gain from a tighter table image regardless of whether you get called or not on this hand. The equity you gain from SB pushing and BB calling, a not-improbable parlay here.

BTW, how are you doing the ICM calculations? Dethgrind's page only lets me enter prizes for the top 3.

I also think ICM is overestimating your equity those times you get called and lose...you won't have FE anymore, and you'll be the next shorty in line for the blinds.