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#11
04-09-2005, 02:42 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but Phil's rough calculations assumed that it would only be folded to you 40% of the time. Plus he had that wacky 8.28% figure. [/ QUOTE ] I can't find that 40% number. I think he's assuming it will be folded to you 100% of the time. Regardless, I think he has a very valid point. Ilya, are you arguing against his point? If so, why? 
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#12
04-09-2005, 02:49 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
i think the main prob w this is the calling standards. at the 30s on pp aa-77, ak, aq only is not true. you'll 100% get called by any pair and any ace, and most likely any two facecards, as well as most kings. how does that effect percentages.
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#13
04-09-2005, 02:52 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yes, but Phil's rough calculations assumed that it would only be folded to you 40% of the time. Plus he had that wacky 8.28% figure. [/ QUOTE ] I can't find that 40% number. I think he's assuming it will be folded to you 100% of the time. Regardless, I think he has a very valid point. Ilya, are you arguing against his point? If so, why? [/ QUOTE ] The 40% part is in this bit: [ QUOTE ] If you push and he folds, your ICM is 0.2657. If you push and he calls and you win, your ICM is 0.3833. (It's 0 if you lose, of course). (0.2657 * 0.917)+((0.3833*0.294)*0.0828) = 0.253 On the previous hand we turned turn an ICM of 0.26 so we could get an ICM of 0.253. Well, what if UTG or button push? If they push and we fold, our ICM is 0.2425. If they push 60% of the time and we always fold, your ICM is: (0.2425 * 0.40) + (0.253 * 0.60) = 0.2467 Of course, sometimes you'll get a monster hand and call their steal, or the BB will call the steal. This is too complicated. If you throw in a few decimals for this, you get back to 0.25. Remember, we were 0.253 if the UTG/Button never pushed. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not exactly sure what Phil's point is, so I wouldn't say I'm arguing against it.
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#15
04-09-2005, 02:59 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
dadadadada communication breakdown, It’s always the same, I’m having a nervous breakdown, Drive me insane! [/ QUOTE ] Finally...someone talking sense in this thread!! Phil started us out right...but then things went horribly, horribly wrong!! Yugoslav
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#16
04-09-2005, 03:00 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] dadadadada communication breakdown, It’s always the same, I’m having a nervous breakdown, Drive me insane! [/ QUOTE ] Finally...someone talking sense in this thread!! Phil started us out right...but then things went horribly, horribly wrong!! Yugoslav [/ QUOTE ] What are you saying here Yugo...I don't understand.... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#17
04-09-2005, 07:28 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
Phil started us out right...but then things went horribly, horribly wrong!! [/ QUOTE ] I knew I would screw up some of those numbers, but that's never stopped me before. The BB calling % of 8.28% was clearly wrong. I think its 5.55%. If someone has a better way to calculate this, clue me in. I went here and found a specific pair is 0.45%, a suited hand is 0.3%, and unsuited is 0.90%. We have 7 pairs and 2 suited and unsuited (AK, AQ). Anyway, here is the corrected ICM of the blind steal assuming we always fold if the Button or UTG try to steal. I assumed they would steal 60% of the time. That number is pretty arbitrary, so here are the result with several numbers: Button/UTG steal 0% = 0.257 (was 0.253) Button/UTG steal 20% = 0.254 Button/UTG steal 40% = 0.251 Button/UTG steal 60% = 0.248 (was 0.2467) Slightly better, but not a huge difference.
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#18
04-09-2005, 11:05 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
Phil here's some numbers for you:
There is 6 ways to make any pocket pair There are 13 Total pocket pairs Pairs = 13*6 = 78 of total possible hand combinations There are 16 possible ways of making any other two card combo. 2 card combos = (169-13)*16 = 2,496 Total possible card combinations = 2,496+78= 2,574 Therefore AA-77 = 48 possible card combinations AK = 16 Total = 64 Probability of getting this = 64/2574 = 2.49%
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#19
04-09-2005, 11:09 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
how does that effect percentages. [/ QUOTE ] It proves Phil's point even more. Any two cards vs. those hands is going to decrease $EV. I think the overall belief here is failing in two methods. 1) Belief that skill can overcome alternate +$EV situations. I hashed this out a little while back. See What to do when ICM fails you? 2) Overvaluing Survival Equity Scuba
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#20
04-09-2005, 11:18 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
Phil here's some numbers for you: There is 6 ways to make any pocket pair There are 13 Total pocket pairs Pairs = 13*6 = 78 of total possible hand combinations There are 16 possible ways of making any other two card combo. 2 card combos = (169-13)*16 = 2,496 Total possible card combinations = 2,496+78= 2,574 Therefore AA-77 = 48 possible card combinations AK = 16 Total = 64 Probability of getting this = 64/2574 = 2.49% [/ QUOTE ] There are not 16 ways of making any other two card combo. There are 12 ways of making an offsuit hand and 4 ways of making a suited hand. The total number of starting hands is 1326. Paul
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