Bet out on the flop?

[kurosh]

Yup, it's pretty much directly from HPFAP. In the example they had 6 players. It doesn't make any mention of position but it says bet out so I assumed it was in earlier position and limping with A2s in EP is usually a bad move.

Oh and I made up the original hand BTW. I wanted to see what people thought.

[admiralfluff]

I have no idea as I play 3/6, but do you think you can apply this type of HPFAP concept to 15/30?

[DMBFan23]

the Q is crucial because you are VERY unlikely to be up against two overcards.

it doesnt matter that we have the only overcards that we could be up against reverse dominated, because if he plays on he's probably raising unless he closes the action, and maybe even then he raises for shania. so we're folding to a flop raise+ turn bet unimproved.

the summary of the important concept from HPFAP's semibluffing section on this hand, IMO, is that this would be a bad bet on a T high flop.

[kurosh]

If it was 3/6, what difference would there be?

[chief444]

What was the reasoning behind it. Because you're getting called like always here in a 6-way pot. You'll get raised pretty often I'd have to think. I don't see how it's a good "semibluff" because it only qualifies if it has some chance of picking up the pot and I don't think it does here. I'm just not seeing it even on such an uncoordinated board. I'm open to any arguments for it though.

[DMBFan23]

some arguments for:

-you have serious implied odds for improving if you are currently behind
-you have just enough hand, with the overcard kicker, to see the turn
-you slow down the action - you can't really call for two cold if that's how it goes, but if you bet out only rarely will it come back for two more, and you can safely fold then IMO.


is it right to bet? I dunno. but those are some arguments.

[kurosh]

This is why I'm sort of leaning towards it now:
If someone bets, you have odds to draw to 2-pair or trips. So, I'd rather bet than call.
You will rarely be raised by something less than a pair of queens. You were in the BB so they give you credit for any two.
Sometimes you will make a 7 or queen with bad kicker incorrectly fold.

[chief444]

Yeah. I guess I can see it. But I'm still not really convinced.

I don't see how your implied odds are much better by betting. Maybe a little just because it's somewhat deceptive. But I don't think there's a huge difference. And I'd rather not put two bets in the pot whether I'm doing it "correctly" one at a time or not. I think that's my biggest issue with it.

I haven't played 15/30 yet though. The 3/6 tables I play I think are usually a little loose/aggressive. I don't think it's a good play there. The 5/10 full tables I've been at play fairly weak/tight IMO so I like the bet sometimes there. But in certain situations I guess I can see it. I think my biggest problem with it is 6 people are seeing the flop so it's likely a loose game and you'll likely be called in a couple of spots if not raised. But maybe not.

I couldn't agree more with you're point that if you're going to bet this it's on a flop with a high card.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how your implied odds are much better by betting

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right, I didnt mean by betting as opposed to checking, I just meant for the hand in general - you'll make a mint off of the trips, and if someone chased the Ace then they'll have hidden outs but you'll likely fleece them too.

[habsfanca11]

Doesn't the discussion of this semi-bluff move really need to be considered in the larger context of the game you are in? I can't speak to 15/30 but the move should be considered in light of your table image, texture of the game, players to act after you, what you're perceived betting standards are etc.. Also, is this a one-time or rarely type of play? At 2/4 and 3/6 I specifically note players that bet middle (or bottom) pair with any regularity. If they bet I'm raising any Queen, and that play has been working very well so far. It scares people out of the hand and provides very good information. I guess what I am trying to say is that if you use this with any regularity it can come back to haunt you.

Lastly, I've been really focusing on people's limping standards as I try to figure my own out and at 2/4, 3/6 with 6 people limping, there is likely a Queen out there. Contrary to what another poster said about not trying this with a 10 on the board, I'm staying away from this because of the Queen. Just been my observation over the last 5 months that with this many limpers there is a Queen out there in all likelyhood. FWIW.