I need Sticky Bonus help (advice plz)

[Subby]

The only reasons games like roulette and baccarat and blackjack and sicbo and craps and JoB are banned at many on-line casinos for purposes of fulfilling WR that HA is low enough that there is very little risk to the player when completing the WR.

They would love for you to try and fulfill your WR by betting a single number on roulette. Most folks however, will just play red or black 5,000 times or however many spins it takes to fulfill WR.

[Baulucky]

Thanks. That wasn't the point that I was trying to address. Maybe the example below will clarify my point:

Case 1. Assume you find a 0% HA game of ANYTHING. You depo $100, get $200 sticky, bet $300 on one shot, cashout if win.

EV=0.50 x 300 -0.50 x 100 = $100. This is your EV per sticky.

Case 2. Assume you find a european roulette game. You depo $100, get $200 sticky, bet $300 on one number, cashout if win.

EV= (35 x 300-200)/36 - (35 x 100)/36 = $188.88 per sticky.

Do you see why?. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[pzhon]

One useful estimate for stcky bonuses:

Let B be the nominal bonus amount.
Let p be the probability of busting out under your chosen strategy.

The value of the bonus is at most p * B.
(In fact, it is p*B - E(W)*HA, where E(W) is the expected amount you wager, and HA is the house advantage.)

You need to accept a high risk of busting out in order to get anything close to full value.

[Freakin]

Play video poker (jacks or better if allowed). Bet the minimum coin size and max coins. For every win, continually double till you either hit your target or lose the double. So an example would be

Bet $1.25. Get 2-pair and win 2.50
Double successfully and win 5
Double successfully and win 10
" " " " 20
40
80
160
320

Cashout.

Freakin

*EDIT* and btw, you did not play this very well, so either you did not research enough, or you researched the wrong information. You either hit your target or bust a sticky.

[fluff]

If you have 0 HA games, then the EV is no longer determined by game or payout but by target.

In your Roulette case you set your target at 35 x D+B whereas in your BJ case you only set your target at 2 x D+B. There is nothing that prevents you for setting your target in the BJ case to 35 x D+B, and then the EV and ROR will be the same as that of the Roulette game.

Now of course, if we use actual HA, one would always choose the lowest HA games.

[Baulucky]

I was comparing the normal roulette (case 2) with any game with HA=0 (case 1). You can see how the game with high payoff has higher EV even if it has a relatively big HA.

[Homer]

1) Cash out 204 for a $4 profit … run like the wind.
2) Keep playing knowing full well knowing that anything under $400 is now a loss?

This makes no sense. Are you ever going to play another sticky? If so, you clearly keep playing since you now have a 200/200 with no WR, which is better than any other sticky bonus out there.

[hogua]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you ever going to play another sticky? If so, you clearly keep playing since you now have a 200/200 with no WR, which is better than any other sticky bonus out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

[fluff]

It has nothing to do with high payoff game, but with the target you set. The higher you set the target, the higher your EV is. In your roulette example, you leverage your sticky bonus to a 35 x D+B target, which was able to overcome the HA reduction when compared to a 0 HA game with a target of only 2 x D+B.

To make a fair comparison, you need to set your target for you 0 HA game to be equal that to you roulette game.

Lets say 200% sticky bonus, so deposit $100, get $200, for a total of $300.

The 0 HA game is a pure coin flip.

You want to reach a target of 16 x D+B (4800), so you bet everything on each flip. You need to win 4 times in a row to reach this target and one out of 16 times you will succeed.

EV is (4800 - 200 (sticky) - 1500 (lost 15 times))/16 = $193.75.

Now for a roulette example, lets say we have a fair roulette wheel with 16 numbers, paying out 15:1 if you hit it. (I use 16 here to simplify the calculation as 16 x D+B is our target).

1 in 16 times you will win 4800, 15/16 times you will lose 100. EV is exactly the same as in coin flip game.

Now lets have a HA roulette game, with 17 numbers, but paying 16:1 as before. (HA of 5.88%)

Now 1 in 17 times you will win 4800, 16 in 17 times you will lose 100. EV is (4800-200-1600)/17 = $176.47

As you can see, it all depends on target, and it is always better to choose the lowest HA game.

[Baulucky]

Thanks. So my original question stands: What's the optimal GAME to do these stickies with?. (Maybe some type of jackpot video poker with a low HA and an enormous but infrequent payoff?)