Did I fail to protect my hand in this ex-large pot? - Page 2

istewart · #11 04-08-2005, 01:01 PM

Well, if you add the backdoor straight you can semi-validate it if you give him some great implied odds. That's something I didn't see. Still, you have to consider that he may have to pay a ton of turn bets when a heart or a K/Q hits, which isn't fun.

He wasn't getting 15.4:1 when he called the raise and the 3-bet though. He was getting 10:1, wasn't closing the action, and had probably 2 outs total (a 22:1 shot).

GrunchCan · #12 04-08-2005, 01:05 PM

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Well, if you add the backdoor straight you can semi-validate it if you give him some great implied odds. That's something I didn't see.

He wasn't getting 15.4:1 when he called the raise and the 3-bet though. He was getting 10:1.

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True, he was getting 10:1 on the second 2, but it wasn't cold, first of all. Second of all, the bets are about to double in size, making it much easier for villan to make up the implied odds he needs to be +EV.

The biggest problem I see with villan's call is the fact that he is exposing himself to a cap behind him. If he were closing the action, I would say that calling the 10:1 would be clearly correct.

I'm still undecided.

jrz1972 · #13 04-08-2005, 01:15 PM

Backdoor flush = 1.5 outs. (Although it would only be the 3rd nut).

Two gap backdoor straight = 0.5 outs.

He's being offered ~10:1 when it's two cold back to him.

I don't see this as being a close decision. Granted, there are some implied odds coming up, but villian really needs about twice what he's being offered here.

scotty34 · #14 04-08-2005, 01:28 PM

Yes, I acknowledged that calling the 3-bet was poor. Calling the initial bet was not that bad IMO. However, it is a fact that once you put one bet into the pot, you are far more likely to put one or two more, correct or not. His play was not right, but not terrible, and I think many of us would do the same, whether they will admit it or not.

jrz1972 · #15 04-08-2005, 01:33 PM

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However, it is a fact that once you put one bet into the pot, you are far more likely to put one or two more, correct or not. His play was not right, but not terrible,

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Tossing in two more bets just because you already tossed in one, even though the pot odds don't come close to justifying it, truly is terrible. This is a complete abandonment of basic poker fundamentals.

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I think many of us would do the same, whether they will admit it or not

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This is definitely mistaken.

scotty34 · #16 04-08-2005, 01:44 PM

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However, it is a fact that once you put one bet into the pot, you are far more likely to put one or two more, correct or not. His play was not right, but not terrible,

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Tossing in two more bets just because you already tossed in one, even though the pot odds don't come close to justifying it, truly is terrible. This is a complete abandonment of basic poker fundamentals.

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Again, I am not saying it is the proper thing to do, it is intrinsically wrong. Humans are not computers however, and we can't always do everything according to perfect logic and odds. This opponent has likely never read SSH or any other book, and probably doesn't realize that this call is wrong. He made a mistake, and probably didn't realize it was a mistake (he may not even have known his first call was 'correct'). I am not giving him credit for being a TAG who knows what he is doing. The point I was trying to make originally is just because someone makes a minor mistake, he is not a 'buddy list candidate.' Someone who is a buddy list candidate is a guy who you have played 50-100+ hands with, has a ridiculous VPIP, and plays very poorly, not someone who happens to suck out on you once.

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I think many of us would do the same, whether they will admit it or not

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This is definitely mistaken.

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OK, perhaps I am not at the level yet where I can calculate odds perfectly, and make my decisions based on that everytime. It is a fact that once you put a bet into the pot, you are far more prone to put in two. It is something I have to work on, I know that. Even 2+2'ers make mistakes though, none of us are perfect.