KINGS FROM HELL - Page 2

Shillx · #11 04-08-2005, 02:43 AM

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I'd fold the second one in a split second unless I knew him to be tricky. The top card on the board pairing is the absolute worst thing that can happen to an overpair.

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This is exactly why you should be more inclined to call down in this spot. People love to bluff this ish and you should be savvy enough to recognize this pattern. You also have to ask yourself..."Would this guy raise top pair on the flop?"

Brad

Edit: I made it seem like you should call this hand down when he raises the scare card. I mean that you should be more inclined to call down a scare card then a non-scare card with all other things being equal.

Dave G. · #12 04-08-2005, 02:47 AM

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I'd fold the second one in a split second unless I knew him to be tricky. The top card on the board pairing is the absolute worst thing that can happen to an overpair.

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This is a concern when the pot is multiway with many players seeing the flop, but when only 2 opponents see the flop, it's not nearly as bad.

Once the turn shows the second queen, 2 villains will only have one queen between them about 16% of the time. That means, 84% of the time your overpair is good. Which means that you are folding incorrectly 84% of the time.

Yes you'll occasionally run into someone who just made trips, but this will be the exception not the rule.

Of course, if the opponent is super passive then you should be very concerned, but generally when it's short handed, the board pairing is not a great disaster. Infact it might even help you by counterfeiting a two pair hand.

GrandmaStabone · #13 04-08-2005, 02:48 AM

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I'd fold the second one in a split second unless I knew him to be tricky. The top card on the board pairing is the absolute worst thing that can happen to an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly why you should call down in this spot. People love to bluff this ish and you should be savvy enough to recognize this pattern. You also have to ask yourself..."Would this guy raise top pair on the flop?"

Brad

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At these limits, no one is betting that scare card after all the flop action often enough to show a profit in paying this off. Also, you have not explained why you fold the first hand to just one more bet getting 10-1 on the river?

GrandmaStabone · #14 04-08-2005, 02:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold the second one in a split second unless I knew him to be tricky. The top card on the board pairing is the absolute worst thing that can happen to an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a concern when the pot is multiway with many players seeing the flop, but when only 2 opponents see the flop, it's not nearly as bad.

Once the turn shows the second queen, 2 villains will only have one queen between them about 16% of the time. That means, 84% of the time your overpair is good. Which means that you are folding incorrectly 84% of the time.

Yes you'll occasionally run into someone who just made trips, but this will be the exception not the rule.

Of course, if the opponent is super passive then you should be very concerned, but generally when it's short handed, the board pairing is not a great disaster. Infact it might even help you by counterfeiting a two pair hand.

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It's not JUST the fact that the top pair paired, but it also completed the flush draw.

Dave G. · #15 04-08-2005, 02:55 AM

Yes I realise this, I was just responding to the "top card pairing" post. I know the flush potential makes this considerably worse. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Malachii · #16 04-08-2005, 02:57 AM

I don't know man. Yes, he could be bluffing. But he called three cold, so it seems fair to assume that he's not a very strong player. I would call down against a player who I thought capable of making that kind of move, but that would be the exception rather than the rule.

Shillx · #17 04-08-2005, 02:57 AM

Yeah but that doesn't tell the entire story. You also have to look at the size of the pot. We are getting 10:1 to call the turn raise here...

A) Even if he flipped up a flush we would still call the turn bet (unless his flush contains the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]).

B) If he has a queen we are screwed but we have to figure out if he would/wouldn't raise the flop with a queen to determine how likely it is that he has a queen.

C) He could be on a stone bluff and we are getting 5.5:1 to call her down. If the villian is bluffing 16% of the time we will show a profit just by snapping off bluffs (not to mention the times that we outdraw him). Of course if he is bluffing with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] we need to be getting 4.2:1 to calldown (and he won't always have a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in his hand). So if he is raising with a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] as little as 20% of the time we show a profit by paying off.

Brad

tijean · #18 04-08-2005, 03:09 AM

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It's not JUST the fact that the top pair paired, but it also completed the flush draw.

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Which makes it even more bluffable. You're assuming villain has a Q, or 2 diamonds. What if he has Ax - where the A is a diamond and the x isn't a Q? Then the raise is only a semi-bluff, and even LPPs know how to do that.

I'm not suggesting a 3-bet here, but folding is a major mistake.

Malachii · #19 04-08-2005, 03:10 AM

How'd you get the 84% figure? I'm not sure how accurate it is because Villian had a pot that was raised and reraised infront of him, yet he still chose to play his cards. This allows us to make some assumptions about the texture of his hand.

Specifically, it's very unlikely that he would be calling with two cards lower than a ten. That gives him 4 tens, 4 jacks, 2 queens, 2 kings, and 4 aces in his possible holding. So I'd say that the probability that he's holding a queen are considerably higher than your estimate. We could narrow it down further when he called the bet on the flop, but I don't really want to invest the energy. Suffice it to say that given that both of these villians are playing in a raised/reraised pot, your calculations have to take that into consideration.

I'm not saying you should always fold an overpair when the top card pairs. It's a very read dependent situation. But, I think Hero played the turn fine. He bet so as to not allow a free card that could potentially beat him, and then folded when the non tricky opponent raised him.

tijean · #20 04-08-2005, 03:20 AM

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I don't call the river raise in hand one.

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Yeah, I understand this. But I like I said, I look him up anyway. If I'm gonna lose this hand anyway, I want to know why - Did he misplay the A on the flop? Did he slowplay the flush? Did he suckout the str8? This might be a major -EV move at higher limits, but at 1/2 I think the extra BB buys me enough ammunition to take this guy later.