PP NL600: Is this a must fold Full House on River?

[cero_z]

Hi IHateCats,

I'm never folding on the river. You said this guy bluffs at every river? I just don't see how you can let it go for 125 here. I don't own PokerTracker, but I assume those other numbers mean he's very tight and not too aggressive. I guess this is why you assume he must have a made hand: he raised out of the BB, so you think he must hold a big pair or AK. But if that was the case, you had a clear raise/fold situation on the turn. By calling on the turn, I think you build the pot to the point where you call a reasonable bet on the river, despite the obvious scare card. If you raised the turn, and he put in a big re-raise, you'd have to consider folding. But when you call, you must expect him to bet again, so I assume you were planning on calling. Running Ace-Ace is not a good enough reason to abort the plan, IMO.

Also, his turn bet doesn't exactly scream confidence to me. He could be betting small to get you to come over the top, but that's not typical thinking in these games. Plus, the only hand he can hold where he wants you to raise on the turn is JT. I personally see that as a valid possibility, although I assume you will all tell me that nobody raises out of the BB with it.

I'm not buying that he raised two limpers from the BB with a big pair or AK, but only charged them $11 more. If he did, that's a pretty bad strategy to use. You're begging to get called in two spots in the worst position and having defined your hand.

[soah]

Hero bet the turn.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
as near as I can tell he bluffs at almost every river

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting ~3:1 to call this, and you have a 2-card boat, and this guy bluffs a lot. I really don't think you can fold here. The action is suspicious, but against the player you describe you are ahead more than 1/3 of the time, so call.

Raising is a large error, but calling is far superior to folding to me.

Don't forget that JT for the broadway straight is a possible losing "non-bluff" holding for this dude as well.

[mythrilfox]

What is the rationale for that ugly turn bet?

[mgsimpleton]

what is the rationale for any of the way this hand was played? raise the flop. bet more on the turn. as it was played, call the river.

i have a list of people that are no longer allowed to receive sets because sets are such a rare and beautiful thing and then they abuse them. you just made it to that list, my friend.

[JKratzer]

[ QUOTE ]
i have a list of people that are no longer allowed to receive sets because sets are such a rare and beautiful thing and then they abuse them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what I did to make it to that list but please remove me. 78 pocket pairs with no sets and NOW I find out why. I had just assumed God hates me....

JKratzer