2/4 Insanity!! - Page 2

Elbie · #11 04-06-2005, 10:56 AM

I would have folded.

The options are to coldcall or raise in a pot that is capped preflop with just two overcards. Neither option seems very attractive.

Frequitude · #12 04-06-2005, 11:01 AM

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It might not make any difference, but UTG +2 paused for a long time on the turn when it was two cold to him.

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This could definitely mean a few things, but also definitely supports a flush draw. If he's like many Party players, I can picture him sitting there saying "Oh man, 8 bucks is a lot of money for this draw. I'm scared. What's a pot odd???"

Chris Dow · #13 04-06-2005, 11:05 AM

Yeah, how about the party type player who caps with a flush draw though. I wouldn't think he'd ever fold it later.

Frequitude · #14 04-06-2005, 11:13 AM

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Yeah, how about the party type player who caps with a flush draw though. I wouldn't think he'd ever fold it later.

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Yeah, very true. If he knows to cap the flop, then he knows he has odds on the turn.

He could always be multitabling, or had to take a piss, or feed his cat, etc., etc., etc. I try to ignore these delays when making a read.

Chris Dow · #15 04-06-2005, 11:16 AM

Fair enough, just discussing it, I felt like it might swing it toward value bet more than away from it. In the end I don't weight toooo heavily on little things like that either.

Chris Dow · #16 04-06-2005, 11:23 AM

Okay, time for a new question. Should I (ie math) fold the flop for 2 bets (assume I know it will be only 2 bets even though I don't) with overs and the backdoor nut flush draw?

Frequitude · #17 04-06-2005, 12:06 PM

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Okay, time for a new question. Should I (ie math) fold the flop for 2 bets (assume I know it will be only 2 bets even though I don't) with overs and the backdoor nut flush draw?

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Given the action, I am not 100% certain how good your A and Q outs are. Let's discount them by half though, so they are worth 1.5 outs each.

A: 1.5 outs
Q: 1.5 outs
BD Flush: 1.5 outs

So you have 4.5 outs, making you about a 9.5:1 underdog. At the time of the call, the pot is laying you 15:1, so it is definitely a profitable call.

Of course, this assumes it will only be 2 bets on the flop (as you stipulated). But given the action so far, you've got no reason to believe it will be.

If you want to discount your overs further, you could make them worth 1 out each. This still leaves you with 3.5 outs, or as a 12.5:1 dog...still a profitable call with this pot.

Chris Dow · #18 04-06-2005, 12:58 PM

Thanks, this post was the answer I was kinda looking for. So in the heat of the moment in this pot I decided I can't fold because I have no reason to believe that the over outs should be significantly devalued here. Oh yeah, and the pot is huge. Is raise better than call on the flop, I thought I might as well make it 3 cold to most of the field and clean up any outs I might be able to clean up? Given these enormous pot odds even while facing 2 bets at the moment is it really a fold here on the flop?

sweetjazz · #19 04-06-2005, 01:13 PM

Your question can't be answered without reads on the players who have raised the pot so far. You suggest that all of them are maniacal raisers. If that's the case, you cannot fold here. But, with a different read, where one of the raisers is representing a big hand (e.g. QQ -- AA or AKs), then a fold seems okay.

Given what you have said, I don't think you can fold (as the previous poster's analysis showed). I am not sure which outs you are cleaning up, since it's going to be hard to get people to fold if they have any chance of winning the pot. Unless you have reason to feel almost certain that it's going to be capped back to you (meaning that the cap doesn't represent a huge hand out like a flopped set or such), then raising is probably okay.

Given how the action developed, I'd call the flop hoping to see the turn as cheap as possible. Also, you increase your chances of getting the field to face 2 (or 3) cold on the turn if you spike an overcard, as you did. This might knock people out who have weak redraws.

Chris Dow · #20 04-06-2005, 01:18 PM

Yeah, fair response. Given how the UTG player who got aipf was affecting the pf action any hand QQ or up would have been very surprising to me here. Since I'm not putting anyone on QQ or higher, I felt I had to go on with the hand. Since I could make it 3 cold on the flop to 3 people I thought that was the best chance to make sure that my overs were as clean as possible. Perhaps I should be waiting for the turn to clean em out.