RedSox rebound

[Paluka]

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I did like the game 2 matchup better than game 3, though.

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This is exactly my point. Anyone who bet anything on game 3 should have been killing people to get a bet down on game 2.

[mrbaseball]

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Anyone who bet anything on game 3 should have been killing people to get a bet down on game 2

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I did bet the runline on game 2 but I liked game 3 much better. Pavano and Clement are wild cards. Both decent and on the verge of breaking out to stardom. But both on new teams and in new leagues and no track record in this particular environment.

With Mussina and Wakefield you pretty much know what you are gonna get. And if you looked at the past it figured to be a coinflip despite Mussina overhyped name recognition.

Plus the sweep factor. It's easier to bet the defending world champions don't get swept first time out of the box in the new season. But the real key for me was that the game handicapped out totally flat. Pavano and Clement? Too many uncertainties and gray areas to handicap out correctly at this stage of the season.

[DougOzzzz]

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Even if the line is -250 betting on the Yankees won't be a good bet, but there is a chance that betting the other side won't be profitable either. Especially in -250/+220 situations that will happen often. I think blindly betting NYY (not that this is what you are advocating) when they are -250 will be detrimental to one's bankroll. Plus, they will most likely be getting these prices at home, where they really are very dominant. I think HFA is over estimated in MLB, but some teams have a large HFA. And the yankees are one of them. In fact, NYY was 57-24 last year at home and betting on them every game last year (home and away) would have won 2.25 units. I am by no means advocating betting on the yankees, but i don't think blindly betting against them with big numbers is advisable.


Also, the prices are always a little bit higher at the beginning of the season than half way through.

craig

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Oh, I'm not going to blindly bet against them. I'll look at each line of course. So far though, it looks like a good strategy. I really feel game 2 was a no-brainer, game 3 was fairly easy as well, and game 1 was no worse than break even.

If the lines continue to be like they are, then I will bet against the Yanks alot this year. I also believe that they are overrated and likely to lose 5-10 more games this year than last, even though their run differential may be greater (they were extremely lucky last year).

[mrbaseball]

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are overrated and likely to lose 5-10 more games this year than last

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Keep a close eye on the bullpen. If Rivera is the Rivera we have seen so far it could get very interesting. I'm not sold on Gordon either. The guy is a headcase from what I remember of his stints here in Chicago with both the Cubs and Sox. He can go south in a hurry.

Lineupwise the Yankees are totally awesome. Staring pitcherwise is strong but could have problems. Depends on Johnson staying healthy and effective in AL. Last stint in AL for him resulted in a 4+ era. I think Pavano and Wright will be strong but they are shifting leagues and putting on the pinstripes. Those pinstripes can mess you up. Just ask Weaver [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I think Mussina is headed south though. Brown's health is as always unknown.

But the bullpen is what could ultimately undo the 200 million payroll.

[DougOzzzz]

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are overrated and likely to lose 5-10 more games this year than last

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Keep a close eye on the bullpen. If Rivera is the Rivera we have seen so far it could get very interesting. I'm not sold on Gordon either. The guy is a headcase from what I remember of his stints here in Chicago with both the Cubs and Sox. He can go south in a hurry.

Lineupwise the Yankees are totally awesome. Staring pitcherwise is strong but could have problems. Depends on Johnson staying healthy and effective in AL. Last stint in AL for him resulted in a 4+ era. I think Pavano and Wright will be strong but they are shifting leagues and putting on the pinstripes. Those pinstripes can mess you up. Just ask Weaver [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I think Mussina is headed south though. Brown's health is as always unknown.

But the bullpen is what could ultimately undo the 200 million payroll.

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Sure, they have a great lineup. They were great offensively last year - when you take park effects into account, they were about even with Boston as the best offensive team in the league. But they'll probably decline somewhat this year. They have basically the same lineup, plus Tony Womack, who before last year was pretty pathetic offensively. The other guys just get older. A-Rod is the only guy likely to improve - the others will be lucky to match last year's line.

I'm not quite as confident about the starting pitching, nor as pessimistic about the bullpen. Pavano and Wright are big question marks in my book - both coming off excellent years, but they were also their ONLY good years. Johnson may be the favorite to win the Cy Young, but Mussina/Brown are old and declining.

I almost feel sorry for Rivera, but I don't believe he will continue to perform this way. Gordon likely won't match last year's stellar performance, and the rest of the bullpen (the Yanks big weakness last year) hasn't done much to get better. So yeah, the bullpen could be a problem. But I expect Rivera to bounce back at least.

[Paluka]

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Sure, they have a great lineup. They were great offensively last year - when you take park effects into account, they were about even with Boston as the best offensive team in the league. But they'll probably decline somewhat this year. They have basically the same lineup, plus Tony Womack, who before last year was pretty pathetic offensively. The other guys just get older. A-Rod is the only guy likely to improve - the others will be lucky to match last year's line.

I'm not quite as confident about the starting pitching, nor as pessimistic about the bullpen. Pavano and Wright are big question marks in my book - both coming off excellent years, but they were also their ONLY good years. Johnson may be the favorite to win the Cy Young, but Mussina/Brown are old and declining.

I almost feel sorry for Rivera, but I don't believe he will continue to perform this way. Gordon likely won't match last year's stellar performance, and the rest of the bullpen (the Yanks big weakness last year) hasn't done much to get better. So yeah, the bullpen could be a problem. But I expect Rivera to bounce back at least.

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This post had more rational content than is normally allowed on this forum.

[tech]

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Plus the sweep factor.

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The sweep factor is a fallacy. Kinda like Santa Claus -- it sounds good, but the facts don't support it.

[DougOzzzz]

Today's line seemed to kill my plan of always betting against the Yanks. Not sure what is up with it, but +160 is not nearly good enough for me when the O's are on the road and have a weak pitcher on the mound.