20/40 pound hand: playing possible 2nd best hand v. dead cards

[CarlosChadha]

Hi All,

Here are some of my thoughts on each round:

3rd St:
This is an obvious raise because due to the dead and low doorcards showing, I probably have the best hand and even if I don't, my Ace kicker gives me high fold equity and gives me some outs.

4th St:
Betting was definitely my gut instinct on 4th, with everyone having dead cards showing. I thought it was likely that I had the best hand if the Js had small pairs or busted draws. But, I decided that the best play would be to check raise if the bet came from the 4 seat. I thought this would work because, as I mentioned, the 4 seat was very agressive, and also read well. I guessed that the 2 and 3 seats would check, so he would figure that they had busted draws, and that I was extremely weak given that I checked into a dead field with an A showing (and that I was just giving up on a 3rd st. steal). Therefore I think he would have bet any pair, a 4 flush, or possibly even a gutshot str8, hoping to pick up the pot. This would allow me to raise, virtually forcing out both the 2 and 4 seats, even if they had pairs, and thus gettig it heads up with the probable best but vulnerable hand.

But when the 2 seat bet (a suprising bet, which I thought meant he was very strong given that his cards were dead and that he was looking at a possible 4 flush and an Ace), and the 3 seat overcalled, I figured my pair was behind atleast one of them (probably the 2 seat had split Js or a wired big pair), but since my cards were live, I figured to have enough equity to call. It is possible that even if I was behind that since there cards were dead, I had enough equity to raise here, but I didn't want to build the pot, making it harder for them to fold on 5th if I caught a scare card.

5th St:
This street, in my opinion, was the toughest st, and the one I was most unsure of. Normally I would just bet out, even I knew I was behind rather than just check call. But I was pretty sure I was in 2nd place, and since I had just caught 3 non threatening cards there was very little chance that I could get the 2 seat to fold on any subsequent st. I also thought that there were equally small chances that I would get raised by the 2 seat, that I might get a free card with the 2nd best hand, that I had the best hand but the 2 seat would continue semi-bluffing with the 2nd best hand or that I might give a free card with the best hand. Three of these possibilities point to checking, and I was too afraid of giving free cards since my opponents had dead hands.

Lastly, I figured that the 3 seat would probably not overcall if I bet and the 2 seat called, but that he might call a bet from the 2 seat again. Normally with a medium pair and an overcard kicker you would like to be heads up vs a higher pair to give your medium 2 pair a bettr chance to win, but since my opponents hands were extremely dead, any 2 pair I make figures to be good anyway, and since I need to improve to win I don't mind the 3 seat padding my pot odds with a 3rd best hand.

I also briefly considered just folding on 5th, but I am pretty sure that my pot equity was too high to do this.

6th St:
Catching a 2nd dead card really sucks, but I am pot stuck now (as is everyone else). I check, hoping that the 2 seat will back of betting his 1 pair hand into 3 people, but know that this is pretty unlikely.

7th St:
I think that my initial bet here is pretty clear cut because it is highly likely that nobody has 2 pair, and thus, if I check it will probably get checked through (I doubt the 2 seat would bet a single unimproved big pair on the river in a 3 way pot). When I got raised on the river my initial thought was that he had either backed into a spade flush or had made 2 big pair (and knew I'd bet a smaller 2 pair on the river). Given how dead the cards were I thought there was a low chance that he had trips or a full house. Normally this anaysis would lead me to just call, but since he was almost all in I though 3 betting was better because I knew I was going to get 4 bet, and MANY people are willing to lower their raising standards when they get short stacked, so it was possible he was raising here with as little as a pair of Qs and would call my 3 bet.

Thanks for all the input thus far. My biggest weakness is that I am too aggressive, so I am kind of out of my element when it comes to playing hands more passively like I did above. I'm still not too confident with my 5th street play, and to a lesser extent my 3 bet on the river, so I'd love to see anybody show me some math/psychology to either back up or disprove my play.

Thanks,
Carlos

[CarlosChadha]

Hi Mark,

Pot limit 5 and 7 card stud is actually fairly common in Europe. Austria, specifically Vienna, is know to have some fixed limit stud (usually no higher that 20/40 euro) and they also hold the annual European Poker Champs, which is fixed limit stud (but until very recently it had an insanely large ante).

As to where this game was played, can anybody guess? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Regards,
Carlos

[BeerMoney]

I love your analysis of 4th street. You should write a book.

I'm kind of dumbfounded by this hand.

Here are my thoughts about the hand.

On 3rd street, they may put you on a steal as you have the ace and are looking at rags and dead cards. Have you been completing a lot? I think this plays a big part in how the hand played out.



"I'm still not too confident with my 5th street play, and to a lesser extent my 3 bet on the river, so I'd love to see anybody show me some math/psychology to either back up or disprove my play."


I don't like the 3 bet on the river. Nowadays, I need quads to raise or bet the river. When your opponent raises, he's not looking for the overcall, because he knows he's got you crushed, he's not risking anything. I back down a lot when raised on the river, and I find I'm often correct.

[Andy B]

At least I understand your thinking on fourth street now. I don't check-raise much because my opponents aren't very cooperative when I try it. I still don't think that you should give up the initiative. Also, since you were hoping that the bet would come from the bring-in, I'd be concerned that he wouldn't have anything to bet with. He only had to call half a bet to close the action on third street, so he may not have much. A flush draw is a possibility, but there are three hearts out, making that somewhat less likely, and possibly dampening his enthusiasm for betting. If he had split Treys, he probably doesn't like seeing the other two Treys drop in front of him. He might bet a decent pocket pair, but I think that's somewhat less likely than the first two possibilities. That J3o foiled your little scheme was difficult to foresee, but I also see even an aggressive player in the bring-in's spot checking behind an annoying percentage of the time. I say bet your damned hand already.

[Bartholow]

Yeah, I was actually going to post somethign saying basically the same thing as Andy. I like your reasoning in general, but I'm just not sure how often things work the way you want. Give yourself a chance to win uncontested, probably on 5th.

[CarlosChadha]

Hi All,

I agree that against average opposition attempting to check raise here could be a disaster. But I was about 95% sure that barring 234, there was no other hand that the bringin would call a raise that he wouldn't bet if checked to him. I've seen him make extremely thin value raises on all streets. Note that if he has any pair (including 3s) it is probably a mistake for him to check through if checked to him because that means he probably has the best, but very vulnerable hand, so he needs to make a bet to win the pot on 4th (extremely likely given the dead boards and weakness of 3 people checking), or atleast get it heads up.

I guess I didn't give enough credit when I said that this plays like the average 10/20 table...the weak players are almost as weak, but the good players are a lot more agressive, which means that a substansial amount of profit can be made by check raising. A highly profitable play that I make against many tight agressive players is to check raise on 5th with a big pair on 5th (after catching bad twice in a row)if I have been leading on 3rd and 4th and they have a face card showing. Most good players assume that you are giving up on a semi bluff, and will bet most pairs and 4 card draws (some of which they might have correctly given up on), not wanting to give you free cards. When you check raise, you are in a win-win situation because if they now fold a 1 pair hand thinking you are very strong, they are incorrect to do so given the pot size, and if they then call you to the river you are getting them to put in a lot of money with the worst hand. Also, if they truely have nothing (like a bust 3 flush) it is not horrible to give them a free card because then if they catch something (like a small pair, or a draw) they might be inclined to bet or call you with incorrect odds on 6th, thinking you are weak. This play is also good for meta game reasons, because if people know you will CR they start to give you free cards when you really are on a steal. Again, this kind of play is only really important against thinking, tight agressive players...against all others "betting your damn hand," as Andy said, is correct.

Regards,
Carlos

[CarlosChadha]

Hi Beer,

Thanks for the compliment...don't think I'm quite ready for a book though:-) As for raising on the river, I hope you were kidding about your raising standards. I'd say that 7th st. is the number 1 place to find value from marginal hands as you get into tougher games (and where most winning players could improve their game). Frequently it is correct to raise on the river with as little as a small 2 pair when you are heads up v an opponent who you know will bet a big pair everytime for value. The time to do this is if your board has 2 or 3 suited/str8 cards. In this case you almost never get 3 B by 2 pair (or maybe even trips) because the fact that your last card is face down means that you could have a huge hand that you will 4 bet with if they make a marginal 3 bet (this is why my opponent being all ni pushed me towards the 3 bet). On the flip side of the coin, you will almost always get called by the bigger pair because it is usually a huge mistake to fold on the river for just one bet.

Regards,
Carlos

[CarlosChadha]

Hi All,

So it seems that the comments have stopped, so here are the results: The 2 seat had J5 in the hole for 2 pair on 6th, but improved to 5s full on the river. So he took down the pot.

Thanks for the comments...feel free to leave more;-)

Carlos