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#15
04-05-2005, 11:39 AM
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Re: MLB 4/5
I am new to baseball betting, can someone please explain the difference between betting moneylines and the standard 1.5 run spread? Any statistical evidence would be great. In reference to Beckett vs Smoltz right now I am being offered -121 for FLA (which I would not take). However, FLA -1.5 is +180. Any baseball gurus know the value of half a run? Does this (-1.5) look intriguing to anyone else? Thanks, Hombre 
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#16
04-05-2005, 12:26 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
[ QUOTE ]
I am new to baseball betting, can someone please explain the difference between betting moneylines and the standard 1.5 run spread? Any statistical evidence would be great. In reference to Beckett vs Smoltz right now I am being offered -121 for FLA (which I would not take). However, FLA -1.5 is +180. Any baseball gurus know the value of half a run? Does this (-1.5) look intriguing to anyone else? Thanks, Hombre [/ QUOTE ] Here's a try, using the Pythagenport formula explained here. First off, take the original lines and figure out an expected win percentage for Florida in the game. To do this, take the average of the two lines (119 and 111) which equals 115. Therefore, Florida is expected to win 115/215 times according to pinnacle, or 53.49 percent. Next, I'm going to estimate the final score of the game, using the over under line, and the pythagenport formula explained on that web page. The over/under is set at 8 here, so I'll use that to estimate the total number of runs (note the under is -112, so you could adjust the number down slightly). Next we need to come up with runs scored per each team, given that Florida will win 53.4884 percent of the time. I tested some numbers and came up with: Florida 4.154 Atlanta 3.846 for an expected win percentage of 53.4856, close enough. Now I'm going to subtract .75 to Florida's total and add .75 to Atlanta's total, and recalculate the win percentage. So I get: Florida 3.404 Atlanta 4.596 Expected win percentage: 36.72 The line is set at +181, so Florida only has to "win" 35.71 percent to make this a good bet. It's fairly marginal though.
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#17
04-05-2005, 12:33 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
[ QUOTE ]
I am new to baseball betting, can someone please explain the difference between betting moneylines and the standard 1.5 run spread? Any statistical evidence would be great. In reference to Beckett vs Smoltz right now I am being offered -121 for FLA (which I would not take). However, FLA -1.5 is +180. Any baseball gurus know the value of half a run? Does this (-1.5) look intriguing to anyone else? Thanks, Hombre [/ QUOTE ] I'm new too but it's the value of a whole run. A lot of baseball games are 1 run games, compared to the MOV in other sports at least, besides maybe hockey but who cares about hockey these days? Anyhow, money line is essentially a -.5 favorite since a game can't end in a tie, so -1.5 is a run you're giving away. I don't know if -121 to +180 for just 1 run is standard, I don't bet baseball and I can't go line shopping now, I'm at work [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#18
04-05-2005, 01:22 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
Thank you for the response. That is extremely helpful. Have to love it when someone refers to BP, easily the most insightful baseball analysis around. I have a couple questions for you though. When you subtract .75 from FLA and add .75 to ATL, I assume this is how you adjust to a -1.5 line. Is there any way to adjust this to represent 2 full runs without throwing the numbers off too much? Clearly, we need 2 runs not 1.01-1.99. For expected win percentage, do you always take the average (115) and divide it by the (average + 100)? Also, which formula are you using to come up with Florida 4.154 Atlanta 3.846 I am really interested in your analysis. Thanks for posting, Hombre
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#19
04-05-2005, 01:23 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
I tested this out using all of the run lines - for 4 out of the 6 games I checked it gave an edge to the team giving 1.5 runs. The other two gave a solid edge to the team taking the 1.5 runs.
I'm not sure why the Cubs/D'backs and Twins/Mariners run line is so out of whack with all the others, a difference of just 53 and 64 respectively while most others were around 100. So I guess what I'm saying is, take Arizona at -141 +1.5 runs, and Seattle at +1.5 -118. If anything, I'd think my attempt would favor teams that gave the 1.5 runs because a 1 run difference probably comes up a disproportionate number of times in MLB games. This was the case for most games, except these two.
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#20
04-05-2005, 01:54 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
[ QUOTE ]
Thank you for the response. That is extremely helpful. Have to love it when someone refers to BP, easily the most insightful baseball analysis around. I have a couple questions for you though. When you subtract .75 from FLA and add .75 to ATL, I assume this is how you adjust to a -1.5 line. Is there any way to adjust this to represent 2 full runs without throwing the numbers off too much? Clearly, we need 2 runs not 1.01-1.99. [/ QUOTE ] I think you're right in that 1.5 isn't correct. However I think the correct number is 1 run not 2. A straight money line bet can win if you win by 1 run or more. A run line bet can win if you win by 2 runs or more. The difference is only 1 run. That of course improves the expected win percentage significantly, to 42.26 percent. [ QUOTE ] For expected win percentage, do you always take the average (115) and divide it by the (average + 100)? [/ QUOTE ] If the line is negative that's what you do. If it's positive, you take 100 and divide it by 100+LINE. [ QUOTE ] Also, which formula are you using to come up with Florida 4.154 Atlanta 3.846 [/ QUOTE ] I'm using the pythagenport formula - which is like the pythagorean formula except the exponent changes based on the total number of runs per game. The exponent is derived using the formula: 1.5*Log(RPG both teams)+.44. That is a base 10 logarithm. Then plug that result into the equation: Runs1^exp/(Runs1^exp+Runs2^exp), and you get your expected winning percentage. [ QUOTE ] I am really interested in your analysis. Thanks for posting, Hombre [/ QUOTE ] I'm going to try to look into this more, because I think the distribution of run differentials is important. I believe 1 run games, particularly with the home team winning, occur much more frequently than they should. Most of this is due to the fact that a game ends whenever the home team takes the lead in the bottom of the 9th or later. This actually explains the discrepancy in the difference between the run lines and money lines at pinnacle. The two lines with the much smaller difference had the HOME team taking the run. The other lines which appeared to favor the team giving up the runs all had the AWAY team taking the run. A 1 run victory for the home team probably occurs much more frequently than a 1 run victory for the away team.
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