Late tourney problem/situation hand

[apd138]

I am still confused as there seems to be no clear concensus, but thanks for the input guys. Maybe this is a situation where either is right or wrong depending on the specifics. I don't know if its just me but I am shocked by how many times I run into this situation.

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
You're probably right about the FE, I'm not sure you'll get much more later.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're going to sit tight on the assumption a bigger hand is coming, are you really that concerned with FE?

[Phil Van Sexton]

With both of these hands, there is no good answer, but there is a right answer. You are a short stack and you are going to need to get lucky to make the money. It's that simple. You can't sit there and think "I hope the big stack doesn't call me because I might lose."

Your stack sucks, so you are probably going to lose either way. If you lose, it's not going to be because of your decision on this hand.

As you Yugo says: you are "gettin' called a ton", and this is true. However, other than pairs and Ax, you're the favorite over every other hand. If the big stacks want to call with "a ton" of hands, that means they're going to be calling a lot when your Ax is the favorite.

Just like I've been saying that calling isn't always bad, getting called isn't always bad either.

Let's say you get called by KJ:
A3o vs KJ = 57%

With that stack, getting call by KJ is fantastic. You want the big stack to call you.

Basically, if the big stacks decide to expand their calling range for you, that's a GOOD thing. Your A3 will be a favorite over most of the hands they are adding.

If everyone folds, you do win the blinds with no risk. However, that's only 150 and that will be gone shortly when you post the blinds yourself. You'll survive a couple more hands, but your situation has not improved.

In order to get into the money, you need to make a bunch of blind steals and not get called (ie get lucky), or you need to double up (ie get lucky). There's no reason to wait to get blinded down. Just push now and hope for the best.

[RobGW]

Hero needs to get extremely lucky to finish ITM. If he waits he may not find a favorable situation. He will lose all FE after the blinds. Pushing A3 into 5 players may not be a postitive EV but it making the best of a bad situation. I would want to get called here. If a PP calls then the outs to the A are still good. If someone calls with KQ KJ etc. or suited connectors then thats good too. There is only one way for hero to get back into this. He needs to double up quickly. Therefore he needs to gamble it up. Survey says... PUSH.