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#12
03-31-2005, 10:53 PM
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Re: turn decision
first off, I don't get why you didn't raise that preflop. I think that's an easy raise against those guys
and I would call there. you don't fear any cards, you'd hate BB to fold there, and the guy betting out is representing a 9, which would most likely be A9-89. I would consider raising the river though, especially if he's the type of guy that will get scared with Q9 or K9 on the river, but will do it on the turn. 
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#13
03-31-2005, 10:56 PM
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Re: turn decision
I'd raise. It seems very likely your hand is good. MP is loose enough to probably call down with a lot of worse hands and aggressive enough to bet a lot of these same hands into you on the turn. Going for the overcall on the turn I think actually loses you money. If BB is on a draw he isn't calling the river. If BB has a hand he would cold-call two on the river with he'll likely call down anyway, especially given the read.
I think if you are behind it's more likely a slowplayed 33 or 44 than a 9. But you lose the same with either line these times anyway.
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#14
03-31-2005, 10:59 PM
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Re: turn decision
I agree with the line of thinking that a reraise with K9 or Q9 is less likely on the river and that's a good point. But don't you think those hands would raise the flop more times than not? MP isn't exactly passive from the numbers given.
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#15
03-31-2005, 11:02 PM
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Re: turn decision
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the line of thinking that a reraise with K9 or Q9 is less likely on the river and that's a good point. But don't you think those hands would raise the flop more times than not? MP isn't exactly passive from the numbers given. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts exactly!
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#17
03-31-2005, 11:12 PM
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Re: turn decision
[ QUOTE ]
Also...worse 9's are less likely to reraise the river as well. edit...One more thought...there are a lot of outs to a chop or win even when reraised on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] my main reason for raising the turn is to keep the other guy in. a secondary reason is he might fold middle pair or a pocket pair. he also might check call those on the river though, which is a reason to raise, since he'll probably call down. you're right about the flop action. I just have a hard time figuring out what he has. probably 88 the most followed by a weaker trips
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#18
03-31-2005, 11:15 PM
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Re: turn decision
[ QUOTE ]
I just have a hard time figuring out what he has. probably 88 the most followed by a weaker trips [/ QUOTE ] That would be my guess as well. Or like I said 33 or 44 are possible. I think it's very close BTW and don't even have myself completely convinced that raising is better.
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