How to respond to a probable bluff raise on flop

[Ole16]

This situation is first and foremost a question of how your perception of villain is imo.

" However, you also mention that he's been making these types of plays several times in the past 1/2 hour. If he believes that you're onto his strategy, then he's chosen the perfect time to make this play on you if he does indeed have the T. But let's assume that we're still thinking on the first level and that he doesn't have you beat."

Otherwise I like the spade/heart to decide.

[radioheadfan]

This type of situation gets really interesting when the money is deeper. As the pocket pair goes up, your decisions gets easier as there as less overcards to worry about. But if you put 200 BBs in each player's stack, and leave the action as you describe it, things get really ugly in a hurry.

You were fortunate to have the stack size you had when the hand came up, and played it perfectly, IMO.

Seems to me that as the stacks get really big, you simply raise him back the pot, and be prepared to face a some really tough decisions if he plays back or calls.

I find myself frequently in these types of situations and I'll try to post some of them as they come up. I think alot could be learned from talking about these types of marginal situations.

However, knowing the tendancies of your opponent is a very important factor when trying to determine the optimal strategy. But since we don't often run into these situations, sometimes the challenge is to come up with reasonable estimates for an opponent's play given their hole cards, board cards, position, stack size, and their impression of your play. Since we estimate each of these unknowns with a sizeable degree of uncertainty, things can get pretty messy.

Poker can be pretty complicated when you break it all down and think about it.

Good post - a nice break from "should I call or reraise with my aces"

[daryl logan]

One more thing I didnt see mentioned were the suits on the flop...

If there is a possible flush draw, I would consider it much more likely that your opponent (with stack sizes like this) is actually on a Ten.

If there is no possible flush draw, I would see all but the trickiest of opponents smooth calling the $100 and going for a raise on the turn (and reading you) when/if you pot commit yourself with a $250 bet on the turn.

[xorbie]

As a slight aside, any merit to limping PF with the JJ out of position against a villian you know is going to be calling and then bluffing you? It seems like you are playing these jacks for set value unless you are going to go the felt with an overpair, because villian is going to come over the top on any flop (again, just based on your read).

I think given this it is +EV to limp here, for two reasons. One is that playing for set value you want to see a flop for cheap, and let it more players who can pay you off.

The second reason is that on a flop with all unders, your bet looks like it could just as well be a continuation bet with AK/AQ, and will be raised. Then you either have to push (this gives huge implied odds to him calling with any PP and seems like an ugly play) or you have to call and hope no overcards come. This sucks.

If overcards to come, you're just in an ugly position on the flop no matter what.

Is this horrible reasoning?

[Yeti]

Ja, my post was rushed and rather crap. I don't really think I took into account your stack size - with 1k I hate the push here but with 700 it's closer.

Hope it worked out ok.

[gomberg]

Well, this opponent wasn't calling every time, just probably 35%, maybe a little more... sometimes I limp w/ JJ there, sometimes not - I had just tightened up my raising standards because of that player, so figured I might as well still raise with good pairs and build a pot in case I hit a set. He also wasn't flop raising every time, just more than normal and picking good spots / boards to do it.

[tbach24]

I think calling and then check/raising all-in on the turn is the best move. By that time he will basically be pot committed to the hand and you will take down a nice sizable pot. As other posters referenced, if you push here you will only be called by a better hand.

[radioheadfan]

Calling the flop and then checking to him on the turn is awful. There is no guarantee he will bet and could easily take a free one. You have to be X% certain he will be the turn with a hand you beat for this to be the right play. I don't see many players doing this in this situation.

This opponent is not a donkey.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
I think calling and then check/raising all-in on the turn is the best move. By that time he will basically be pot committed to the hand and you will take down a nice sizable pot. As other posters referenced, if you push here you will only be called by a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling, then planning to check-raise all-in is a fine play with aces, and with kings. It is poor play with jacks. Do you see why? If not, read Radiohead's post.

[gomberg]

agreed