Confused BB Flush Draw

[Shillx]

Fold the turn. Your flush draw is dead (someone is drawing to a higher flush) more often than not. If the flush draw is dead, I'd say dollars to donuts that you're reduced to 2 outs at the moment. If you had Axs as the other poster stated, then it'd be easier to cap it yourself for deception.

Wow this is a very dangerous assumption to make. There are 14 BB in the pot on the turn and we need to call 3 bets on the turn. There are 5 people in the pot at this point. Let's not consider the river action at this point but figure that we can't win the pot unless we make a flush. Let x equal the % that we are drawing dead here (assume that we have 9 outs).

EV = 0 = 29*(.196 - x) - 3

x = .093

What this means is that we need to be drawing dead less then 47% of the time to put 3 bets in on the turn. This doesn't count the implied odds that we get on the river (or the negative implied odds should we make a losing flush). It also doesn't count the times we make trips and win or lose. So even in a worst case scenario we only have to make a winning flush 53% of the time here. I think that we are drawing live more often then this. This is a pretty easy call imo.

Brad

[KaiShin]

Damn you math! You've foiled me for the last time!

I think our flush outs should be discounted, specifically the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but that shouldn't make a huge difference. Thanks Shillx.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Fine.

Flop: I prefer a flop bet to a flop checkraise. I like it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why not build the pot here? This seems like an easy check/raise.

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: Action sucks -- a read would be nice here -- but getting 6.6:1 or better I'm not folding.


[/ QUOTE ]

Uhhh, why are so many people sticking around in this hand? I smell set + flush draws and probably top pair. Again, if hero held Ace I'd stay here, but I think hero is drawing dead here imo.

[ QUOTE ]

River: I'd fold. Action is telling me top pair isn't good here, which means that middle two isn't either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Turn action didn't indicate that? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Catt]

PF: Nice.

Flop: Nice / OK. I really don't like a check-raise here, as others have suggested. You're in the BB; there is a PFR reasonably close to the end of the line; I prefer to bet out, hope it gets raised, and then either 3-bet or call depending on table reads (hope it is capped if you 3-bet). Three-betting is nice with 4 others coming along, but it looks really effing suspicious to 3-bet and then check the turn -- if it gets capped, then your turn check doesn't look so obvious. A flop check-raise, on the other hand, risks freezing the action, and you face a good chunk of the table with 2-cold (if they check to the PFR behind you). I would bet out on this flop way more often than I would C/R.

Turn: Sucks for you, but I'm not folding this, even if SB check-capped it in front of me. Don't fear the over-flush (especially with this betting action on the turn).

River: You have to fold this.

[mlb3zr]

To me, all the action on the turn seems to indicate that your flush draw is probably good. UTG might be betting Ax [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but I don't think the rest of the field is. Why raise and reraise to force people out? If they have a flush draw, they want people to stay in and build the pot. I'd put them on two pair or a set. I call the turn.

[yecul]

Yeah, the pot kept getting bigger and I just blew it. Should have dropped on the turn and almost did. Calling the river... well, not the best.

Flop CR. Good option that I didn't consider heavily enough. If I had the nut flush draw I would raised.

BTW, button had 52o for the turn straight. I believe the pfr had AA and the other guy had K4 for two pair. My flush draw was good -- I wasn't worried about a higher flush draw at all, to be honest. Calling the river with two pair... well, that was just me being stubborn with a large pot.

I like the pf call. I like betting out, though CR might be best of all. Turn call, since I was going for the flush, I think is ok. River call -- not so much.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Fine.

Flop: I prefer a flop bet to a flop checkraise. I like it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why not build the pot here? This seems like an easy check/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero could easily cap this flop for value. Betting gives us the 3-bet oppertunity.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Turn: Action sucks -- a read would be nice here -- but getting 6.6:1 or better I'm not folding.


[/ QUOTE ]

Uhhh, why are so many people sticking around in this hand? I smell set + flush draws and probably top pair. Again, if hero held Ace I'd stay here, but I think hero is drawing dead here imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero isn't drawing dead.

[@bsolute_luck]

i've heard what others have said about calling the turn, and it is probably a good idea. but i think i'd have to fold 3 back to me only because SB called. without any reads, i'd put him as on a flush draw. if he'd have folded, i'm calling.

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is scary. I think I'd fold when its 3 cold to you. If you had Ax [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you could call it, but without the draw to the nuts you're in trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the turn. Your flush draw is dead (someone is drawing to a higher flush) more often than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree with this. Hero is getting almost 7:1 on this turn call. This is easily enough to call for a flush and provides enough overlay for the times that his flush is not the highest flush out there.

Also, the chances of losing flush over flush are small. Mathematically the chances of losing with a 9 high flush with 3 on the board are 19% or so against 9 other opponents. Laying down this flush draw in a pot this size is a big mistake, in my opinion.

What sort of flop can we hope for with this hand? If we're not willing to take it to the end when we flop a flush draw and the action gets a bit crazy, then we might as well muck PF.

I'd be tempted to call the river, but when it's 2 back to me I'd probably fold (and pray I was beaten anyway).

[HajiShirazu]

I like a 3-bet on the flop, or a checkraise and cap a 3 bet. In this situation they're about equal given the relative position. But you need to be putting in more money on this flop, calling costs a lot of those sklansky dollars here.
Folding on the turn would be terrible, I can't believe how many people are saying to fold in this huge pot, bad bad bad, you think they're all jacking it up with flush draws? SB is the only worry, and he's certainly not a favorite to have a flush draw, flush draws are rarer than people seem to think.
The river, yeah, I think you can save your money there. But getting what, 28 or something to 2 with two pair, it would be tough since you could be up against an idiot, a smaller two pair (remember, 9 saw the flop), etc.