How much to bet on the turn

[kurto]

"Auto-push for me. If he has a set its all gonna get in on the turn correct?" So, you're saying my $25 re-raise bet WASN'T too much. I wanted to get it all in here.

[soah]

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If I have to give him credit for BOTH a set AND a flush draw, then I could be afraid of close to 20 cards. In which case, I would want to bet the heck out of the river and shut it down.

This makes a read all important, doesn't it. For one would have to lay down too many hands if they give their opponents credit for every possible bad hand possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

As others have mentioned, it's much more likely for him to have a set or two pair than a flush draw, so I guess the real question is what you'll do if the board pairs. No matter what you do, you'll sometimes be making a mistake. Sometimes you'll have the best hand and sometimes you won't. If your opponent is on a 4:1 draw and you give him 4:1 odds to see the river, you had better be prepared to play the river *perfectly* every single time. Just because fish haven't read any poker books doesn't mean that they don't still get the benefits of implied odds. Your bet on the turn needs to have enough EV to make up for all of the -EV mistakes that you might make on the river. So when you want to decide how much to bet on the turn, you need to consider what you'll do on all potential river cards (bricks and scare cards), consider what HE will do IF he has a certain hand (does he make dinky milking bets with the nuts? In that case he doesn't have much for implied odds. Does he make huge bets with the nuts, AND as bluffs? In that case you are going to end up making expensive mistakes relatively often). Don't forget to also consider the times that he is drawing dead though. Making him fold on the turn in that case would be -EV (well, I suppose it would be neutral EV, but it's -EV compared to other plays you could make to milk more from him).

So there are tons of factors to consider and I still haven't really answered your question, but hopefully at least you have some stuff to think about now.

[Los Feliz Slim]

I think you did the right thing. If he has a set, he'll push back and you're getting paid if the board doesn't pair. If he's on the flush draw the odds you've given him are terrible, but SO many players at these tables will chase flush draws with their last red cent that I think this play is +EV.