Play along with me. AJo in a ginormous pot.

[DoctorDrew]

I love these becasue I am still torn between raising b/c the pot is so large who cares (probably what I would do).

And, waiting until the turn to raise to get more BBs rather than SBs in the hand if everyone will still call.

[einbert]

Raise the flop and hopefully SB will 3-bet. If so, cap that [censored] in a heartbeat.

[SCfuji]

welcome back to party.

im raising this flop entity. i want to give the LAG the distinct honor and option of capping the flop and leading into me on the river. since he is a LAG i see a high possibility of getting a ton more money into this pot.

[Shillx]

Okay let's throw out some numbers here (all rough of course)...

Hero's equity right now: ~60%
On 4th should the 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] fall: ~70%
Suited nine: ~50%
A king: ~30%
A queen: ~25%
A Jack or Ace: ~99%
A Ten: ~50%

A blank (a 6 down to a 2) will fall 34% of the time. We will have an assumed 70% equity in this spot.

A non-blank (T down to a 7) will fall 32% of the time. We have about 50% equity in this spot.

We will just call if an king or queen hits (30% equity). The question is...will we bet these hands if we raise the flop and get called. For the sake of argument I will say that we will (this is highly questionable however).

EV wait: 3 BB*.6 + 12 BB(.7*.34 + .5*.32 + .99*.09) + 6 BB*.17*.3 - .5 BB - 2 BB*.83 - 1 BB*.17 = ~ + 5.6 BB

EV raise flop: 6 BB*.6 + 6 BB ( .7*.34 + .5*.32 + .99*.09 + .3*.17) - 2 BB = ~ + 4.8 BB

So yeah I think waiting is good here. Plz comment if you think this is wrong or if you have any questions/concerns.

Brad

[shadow29]

Could I have your babies, Shill?

[SCfuji]

do you want your kids to be deformed?

[LoaferGee12]

Is this assuming the SB bets out the turn and everyone calls again? If it is, I really don't like this.

[milesdyson]

Shill -

I think the calculation becomes way too complicated but would be more accurate if we take into account how often the loose-aggressive SB will 3-bet us on the flop and lead the turn.

Regardless, I think when we keep putting our own estimated %s of events occurring, the results become convoluted. Perhaps your calculation says that it doesn't really matter what we do in this hand? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[hicherbie]

i like waiting to pop the turn...id try my best to isolate LAGs in a big pot.

[btspider]

i don't want to oversimplify things, but most of the time SB does not have us beat, he has one of the gutshot cards and isn't folding.. so that may halve our concerns. if SB doesn't have AK/AQ or a set.. he may have something too weak to lead the turn (KK/QQ/99, etc).

i don't think one line is particular favorable over another. if the flop were two tone and we did not have the Ace of backdoor flushes, i'd be more concerned about our equity. i'd probably just raise the flop at game speed.