AQs UTG - 3-bet river?

[Thigh]

Thought I would ask a question here. I'm trying to get better at reading what other players have. Since villain called two bets cold PF, in the middle, what set would he have flopped?

I'm thinking possible hands he has are: JJ, TT, 44, 55, AT, QT.

The only thing I can see is T's. Maybe I'm giving villain too much credit. I guess he could have 4's or 5's, but I'm not sure I would call two bets PF in the middle with that. Like I said, I'm trying to get better at reading opponents.

As far as 3-betting the river. I would have called, even though I'm not quite sure he really did flop a set. I just think he could have QT just as easily.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
Reasonable chance I checkraise and call a 3-bet, but since you bet, I call the raise.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

[riffraff]

One thing I left out, which is only a very subtle detail, but it played a part in my mind to bet out on the river. When I led out at the turn, MP2 did not raise immediately.. he paused for a second then raised.. forcing the button out and me to slow down. Now I know many people will not put much into an "internet tell" of how long ppl take to act but in this case it seemed like he had a legitamate decision here as to what action to take. When he made the raise I was thinking he may have a set or QT, so I let off the gas. TK or TJ were also a possibility and he wants to protect his hand by pushing the button out, but with these hands, and the Q hitting the board, there aren't a ton of cards to worry about coming on the river.

Because of this slight pause, I thuoght it was a good idea to bet the river as a TJ or KT will most likely check behind and a QT may raise me anyways.

I know a lot of these internet pauses mean nothing.. but sometimes without any history of the player I may put a little faith in them on simple decisions.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd just call. I'm not 66% sure you're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've always had trouble understanding this concept (re: 66% for 3-betting the river, etc). Can someone give me some help on this?

[DoctorDrew]

Wow, a lot of faith. What if he's multi-tabling and was making a decision on another table? Those are usually my delays in acting.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd just call. I'm not 66% sure you're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've always had trouble understanding this concept (re: 66% for 3-betting the river, etc). Can someone give me some help on this?

[/ QUOTE ]

he's either calling or raising.

if he raises.. he probably has a better hand.. you spend 2 bets.
if he calls.. you usually have the best hand.. you gain 1.

spending 2 to win 1 is a 66% confidence venture.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd just call. I'm not 66% sure you're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've always had trouble understanding this concept (re: 66% for 3-betting the river, etc). Can someone give me some help on this?

[/ QUOTE ]

he's either calling or raising.

if he raises.. he probably has a better hand.. you spend 2 bets.
if he calls.. you usually have the best hand.. you gain 1.

spending 2 to win 1 is a 66% confidence venture.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks man.

[riffraff]

I hadn't played with him at all and most of the solid multi-tablers I've almost certainly had some kind of stats on. In any case the decision wasn't that big so either way I played it wouldn't have been that bad.

It was just a little hitch that made me think he could have these extra hands that I would not collect a bet from if he checked behind on the river. My hand was strong and without a guarantee he would bet his hand I bet out, planning to call a raise. I figured if he did indeed flop a set this line would save me a bet. If he had anything else I'm getting at least 1 bet.

I call the raise on the river, he turns over ATo and MHIG.