AJo flops OESD and BDFD - Page 2

ErrantNight · #11 03-18-2005, 01:47 AM

you do NOT want to jam the pot preflop w/ AJo in a multiway pot. you already have position. capping this is chip spewing, and tieing everyone to the pot.

easy raise on the flop. easy.

on the turn, you're still drawing and you're opening yourself up to a 3-bet. once 3-bet, you REALLY shouldn't be jamming here. i would have called and happily seen the river.

ErrantNight · #12 03-18-2005, 01:56 AM

a couple of things Catt.

first of all... 1.52 is not particularly aggressive postflop. and how many times you see the flop has no bearing on the postflop aggression factor. none (or, for that matter, preflop raise percentage).

second... he does have mad outs. 15 most likely. which gives him just UNDER 1:3 odds to hit on the river. so he's not getting quite the immediate odds to chase... but if you give him a little bit more equity on the offchance that, say, an A will bail him out... plus a little for implied odds... it's probably alright. particularly since (as passives) they're liable to slow up if that fourth club hits. but you need to discount your straight outs slightly in case someone has already hit their flush (not terribly likely, but certainly reasonable), not to mention that UTG certainly has T, so you might lose a flush out here or there. additionally with this many schmoes in this big a pot surely someone's drawing to that straight.

you could go on like this for a while (but what if someone's drawing to the flush and i'll dominate them!)... but the point is that your equity is close here, and as unlikely as it may be, if you raise and get 3-bet, and lose a schmoe, you're really lacking on odds.

but i'm half awake so maybe ignore my analysis.

bottomset · #13 03-18-2005, 03:26 AM

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first of all... 1.52 is not particularly aggressive postflop. and how many times you see the flop has no bearing on the postflop aggression factor. none (or, for that matter, preflop raise percentage

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yes it is much harder for someone with a VPIP of 60 to get a 1.5agression than someone w/ a 15VPIP .. much harder

as for this hand, contrary to pop belief AJo does actually maker more money with more bad players entering a pot, you have good position, the preflop raise is good, the cap is bad

as is the turn cap, I'm not raising the turn either, its hard to tell how good your draw is here, but i suspect enough is tainted that you can't raise for value, there isn't a free card to get, and you fold the river UI you want to see it cheap

Dead · #14 03-18-2005, 03:34 AM

I think the pair on board devalues Hero's flush draw. I don't like the turn raise.

Catt · #15 03-18-2005, 03:48 AM

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I wouldn't cap pre-flop. I think the turn is close - I wouldn't be all that unhappy calling or capping with the equity I think you have on the turn against 3 players.

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Thanks. If it had been 3-bet on the flop, what would be your line?

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3-bet or otherwise wouldn't influence my decision all that much -- I might get a little skittish of a turned full house when the second T falls but I'm a bit of a wuss in this way. A good chunk of the equity of your hand on the turn comes from the nut flush draw - though I wouldn't be thrilled to see the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] complete the flush. That draw beats anything except the FH, the quad Ts, or the straight flush obviously, and I don't think I can read any player (3-betting or capping the flop) with enough accuracy to convince me that there really were those monsters under the bed. I would be more interested in if there's any chance that others will fold to a cap (seems pretty unlikely since they've all put 3 in on the turn before you cap). If the turn cap is +EV it is pretty thin -- even having the one guy go all-in instead of making a full call hurts a bit.

Catt · #16 03-18-2005, 03:59 AM

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first of all... 1.52 is not particularly aggressive postflop. and how many times you see the flop has no bearing on the postflop aggression factor. none (or, for that matter, preflop raise percentage).

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The number of flops seen is a very important data point in evaluating post-flop aggression numbers. Post-flop Ag of 1.52 is neutral for someone with a 15% - 25% VPIP. But it is aggressive for someone with a 50% VPIP.

Think about it this way: 1.52 means that Villain is betting or raising half again as much as he is calling. He is doing this much betting or raising post-flop (instead of calling) even though he is seeing better than 50% of the flops dealt. Do you really think that he is getting a big enough piece of over half of all flops dealt to justify betting or raising more often than calling? No way. Alternatively, he is extremely loose pre-flop but very disciplined post-flop so that even though he sees over half of the flops, he folds very, very often and only bets/ raises / calls when he has a legitimate hand. Sound reasonable? Not to me -- guys who see over half the flops don't like to fold in most instances, and if they're not folding then they are calling or they are showiung aggression by betting or raising.

As you state, pre-flop raise is distinct and pretty much independent of other stats.

Catt · #17 03-18-2005, 04:33 AM

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second... he does have mad outs. 15 most likely. which gives him just UNDER 1:3 odds to hit on the river. so he's not getting quite the immediate odds to chase... but if you give him a little bit more equity on the offchance that, say, an A will bail him out... plus a little for implied odds... it's probably alright. particularly since (as passives) they're liable to slow up if that fourth club hits. but you need to discount your straight outs slightly in case someone has already hit their flush (not terribly likely, but certainly reasonable), not to mention that UTG certainly has T, so you might lose a flush out here or there. additionally with this many schmoes in this big a pot surely someone's drawing to that straight.

you could go on like this for a while (but what if someone's drawing to the flush and i'll dominate them!)... but the point is that your equity is close here, and as unlikely as it may be, if you raise and get 3-bet, and lose a schmoe, you're really lacking on odds.

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Well, I think you're confusing two distinct concepts in this analysis. Hero is defintiely still drawing, but he has the odds to chase his draw easily -- when it comes to him on the turn he is getting 20:1 -- he has almost sufficient pot odds to call a two-outer, let alone a 10+ outer. So folding is out of the question.

But in determining whether to raise or call Hero needs to assess his equity -- how likely is he to win on the river against his opponents' likely hands. Hero has 3 opponents, so if his equity is greater than 25% and all opponents will call each bet / raise, then he is making money on each bet that goes into the pot. I think Hero's probably got around 11 outs or so (discounting, in each case a bit, (1) the Qs for a possible chop or a Villain's made flush, (2) the 7's for the possible made straight by a Villain QJ or Villain's made flush, and (3) the 7 and J clubs because it makes a SF more likely) and also discounting the nut flush for the possibility of a FH since the turn paired. With ~11 outs Hero's equity is right around 25% -- the minimum he needs to raise for value (if one of the 3 opponents drops out of the race, he doesn't have enough bets going in to make this work). I'm not sure what's a good out count on this hand, but I think it is somewhere close to 11 -- so long as it is, then raising or calling on the turn becomes a very marginal decision so long as no one is folding on the turn.

I think you know all this, and just used slightly sloppy language in a way that could confuse newer players between the odds to call ("odds to chase") versus the equity to bet or raise. Hence the long response.

Delphin · #18 03-18-2005, 09:36 AM

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Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero (poster) raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (17.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero caps, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls $0.50 (All-In), MP2 calls.

River: (33 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 1 all-in)
UTG bets, MP2 raises, Hero folds, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 37 BB

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Results were interesting:

MP2 shows [ 5c, 5d ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] a full house, Fives full of tens.

UTG shows [ Td, As ] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] three of a kind, tens.

UTG+1 doesn't show [ 3c, Kh ] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] a pair of tens.

Delphin · #19 03-18-2005, 09:39 AM

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What the hell is MP2 raising with on the river? That's what I want to know.

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The best hand, as it turns out. The real question is how did he stick around long enough to river a full house?

Delphin · #20 03-18-2005, 09:42 AM

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I think Hero's probably got around 11 outs or so (discounting, in each case a bit, (1) the Qs for a possible chop or a Villain's made flush, (2) the 7's for the possible made straight by a Villain QJ or Villain's made flush, and (3) the 7 and J clubs because it makes a SF more likely) and also discounting the nut flush for the possibility of a FH since the turn paired. With ~11 outs Hero's equity is right around 25% -- the minimum he needs to raise for value (if one of the 3 opponents drops out of the race, he doesn't have enough bets going in to make this work). I'm not sure what's a good out count on this hand, but I think it is somewhere close to 11 -- so long as it is, then raising or calling on the turn becomes a very marginal decision so long as no one is folding on the turn.

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Great post Catt. I think 11-12 outs is the consensus, which is too close to 25% equity for me to be raising. Next time I'll try not to spew as many chips.