How much gamble do you have in you? - Page 2

Ghazban · #11 03-16-2005, 10:15 AM

Interesting question. I think the more interesting question is how big the payout has to be on a 49:1 shot to make the wager worthwhile. Personally, I have no idea. The odds of me being faced with such a proposition in real life are too low to make it +EV to figure out the utility of my life in dollars.

Mike · #12 03-16-2005, 12:33 PM

Not near enough money, but 6,5 spades works for my hand.

youngin20 · #13 03-16-2005, 12:54 PM

why does everyone think 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is their best bet? Dont they realize that the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] removes the runner runner flush problem? The only real problem is the runner runner straight, which is about....half an out? shrug. i guess....its probably not the smartest thing, but...i probably wouldnt do this. I think it would have to be somewhere around 10 million for it to be +EV, and thats just pulling a large number out of my butt. Anyone with half a brain can make 100000 in a few years, why risk your life? Its not even a bankroll for a 25/50 game let alone a life changing amount of money.

TStoneMBD · #14 03-16-2005, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
$100,000 is NOT life changing. Not even close. But suffice to say, dying is a life changing event. Make it 20 million and I MIGHT wager my life with A5s.

[/ QUOTE ]

id like to just point out that you should accept this bet if you would accept a similiar bet, with less likelyhood of winning but equally proportionate profit.

in this situation you are getting paid 100,000 for a 96.5/3.5 shot. if you would accept 1,000,000 for a 65/35 shot then this one is a no brainer in terms of ev.

Ghazban · #15 03-16-2005, 01:35 PM

Not necessarily-- you are assuming the relationship between the amount of money and the utility of said money is linear. While this is true for small numbers, it is not at all true for very large numbers. For example, if you would take a 1:1 shot for 2 trillion dollars, would you also take a 2000:1 shot for 2 quadrillion dollars? Winning either proposition gets you enough money to (basically) do whatever you want so their utilities are about even despite the difference in the amount of money involved. The $EV is about the same for each, too (well, if I didn't screw up the math) but I can't imagine anyone taking the 2 quadrillion dollar bet.

PokerFink · #16 03-16-2005, 02:57 PM

As others have said, 100 grand is not life-changing.

Make it a more life changing number (say a million or two after taxes) and I would strongly consider it.

threeonefour · #17 03-16-2005, 03:11 PM

I would take the bet and if he wanted a rematch after I won I would accept. My life is worth a $50,000,000 gamble with 1:1 odds probably.... we all risk dying everyday anyway and its we die its not like its the end of the world...... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

That guy · #18 03-16-2005, 03:57 PM

what about a 1-foot putt for the same deal? You control the outcome but are you 96%?

CanKid · #19 03-16-2005, 04:06 PM

I'd accept and take Ks7s as my hole cards

wontons · #20 03-16-2005, 05:15 PM

Yes i would take it...i am a great poker player(relevant information) but 100,000 is a **itload to me and I would be SO comfortable with that amount of money...so you know what I would take the wager...I have experienced sex and everything else in life i have desired except to be extremely rich and if this 98% favorite comes through it will be like paradise on earth...not having to worry about job security...no rush to get a job is what i mean and my bankroll would be GREAT for mid limit poker.