Downswing, or do I just suck?

[hmkpoker]

PFAF is too low, imho. Should be in the low 2's.

[GemiNiveK]

I switched mainly because I'm trying to challenge myself to become a better player and it is my general understanding that the 2/4 BBJP tables are significantly softer than the standard 2/4 tables. So, while there's probably a better earning opportunity for me there despite the extra rake, my goal was more to improve my game than to earn. That's why I've stepped up while whoring. At this point I see my bonuses as tuition of sorts to help me learn more and get more exposure.

The BBJP tables are definitely softer when the beat is over $100K, and I can't stay away from them when the beat is over $200K (fish galore), but that wasn't my primary motivation.

[Moozh]

Don't underestimate variance.

My first 10k I ran at 4.
My next 20k I ran at 1.
The next 20k I ran at 3.
After that I've been running about dead even for about 10k

[tetonpete]

not trying to dump on you...i'm guilty of all of the above. the tendency to look to bad beats as a reason for a prolonged downswing is not constructive. I'm just suggesting possible alternatives. It's very likely it's some combination of bad cards and the ensuing downward spiral of slightly tilting play. While you can't do much about the former, you can about the latter. Your less than optimal aggression levels point to subtle tilt as a result of bad luck. You won't pump the pot with good draws, or you stop three betting strong hands because you fear being outdrawn.
If you're going to get bad cards, take this opportunity to improve your play and when they get hot again you'll be crushing it.
I'm not saying that you think you're too good for 2-4, just that it's very easy to believe that your superior play is a bigger edge than it might actually be.
good luck

[mcozzy1]

I still think you're getting to know your real winrate. Entering the month you didn't have more than 40,000 hands at any specific level. .50/1 to $10/20 is a huge range of limits.

[ QUOTE ]
Do I just need to ride this out and keep playing as I've been, or is -0.35BB/100 over the last 20K hands a real cause for concern?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure you're fine. 20,000 hands isn't all that many in the larger picture. Everyone has periods where there down after that many hands. If you 8 table for 40 hours a week, that's about the equivalent of a losing week. It happens.

[threeonefour]

6.8% pfr is weak.... you probably aren't stealing nearly enough