Stars $3-R WSOP Supersat: Right time to go all-in?

[GrunchCan]

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You said the loosies have folded and yet you re-raised the BB you are not sure about. Why?

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Are you askihng me why I know something about the loosies, but nothing about the BB?

Well, I've just recently been moved to this table from where I was playing. I've only had about 20 hands at this table. In that time, I've seen the limpers limp in to more than half of all pots. They have both showed down hands where they called big pot-sized bets with nothing more than second pair with no redraws, and did not push good but vulerable hands when they should. I don't need stats to know that these players are loose-passive.

The BB on the other hand has played fewer hands, and as far as I can remember, has shown down none. I don't know what kinds of cards he's playing, and I've never seen this particular betting pattern from him before. Other than the fact the BB is tighter and more aggro than the limpers, he is a virtual unknown to me. I give him credit for being better than the limpers by virtue of the fact that I haven't seen much from him until now.

Edit: Or maybe you are asking me why I reraised an unknown player? Well, I guess this would be a standard line for me in this spot. If he has a medium pair, I'm a 45:55 dog or so. If he has 2 broadway cards, I'm something like a 75:25 favorite (is this right?). If he has AA or KK, I'm in big trouble. Given this range of hands, my standard line is to push. Is this bad?

I should say at this point that I'm a pretty decent limit player, but very inexperienced at NL and tourneys. My lines could all be terrible.

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AK is a big hand. The play is looser, so your opponent might be willing to go allin with Ax or Kx, where you are the 3-1 favorite. Yeh, he may have a big hand, but you can't credit him with that as much as in a tighter tournament.

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Granting that rebuy tournies are looser, it is over and with 400 BB, it is quite likely that most of the loosies have been weeded out. Hero did not notice BB's play. Maybe because BB is not playing many hands or just moved to the table, we do not know. But his re-raise still sounds like a warning bell to me to consider AK a drawing hand at this stage.

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What is the purpose of flat calling? There will be 7K is the pot and 5.5K left in the opponent's stack. I suppose the plan is to fold if an ace or king doesn't flop.

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Not necessarily. Hero got him slightly covered and if he has a medium PP and higher cards but below AK flops, it may slow him down to check, then I can take a stab on it. And even if his move on the flop dictates that folding is hero's better option, he still has about 5200 chips - still big enough to pick a better spot in the next round.

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The BB on the other hand has played fewer hands, and as far as I can remember, has shown down none. I don't know what kinds of cards he's playing, and I've never seen this particular betting pattern from him before. Other than the fact the BB is tighter and more aggro than the limpers, he is a virtual unknown to me. I give him credit for being better than the limpers by virtue of the fact that I haven't seen much from him until now.





If he has 2 broadway cards, I'm something like a 75:25 favorite.


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In your first statement you see him to be a TAG. If so, you cannot expect him to re-raise with 2 broadway cards. Without being considered as results-oriented, I think a push here was incorrect.

Oh, I have been accused of being weak-tight, but it's just me. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[betgo]

If you call, you are pot-committed. You can flat call, but I wouldn't fold on the flop. I think you have to go with AK here. Yeah, you are probably up against a pair, but there is already money in the pot that makes up for the 55-45 odds, and you are probably more likely to be up against AQ, AJ, KQ or something than AA or KK, particularly since you have one of each of the aces and kings.

If you had enough chips to advance at this point, you definately should fold. I think at this point you have to be willing to take slightly favorable gambles. If you were playing a loose player, it would be an easy push. However TT is about as good as AQ, so if this guy makes this stupid miniraise with TT, he might do it with AQ too.