25/50 meta game play - Page 2

theBruiser500 · #11 03-13-2005, 05:51 AM

Basically what I thoght was he most likely has 2 overcards so it's 50/50, Pot is 1000 on flop, he he only hits a pair 1/3 times so I bet 750 and win it 2/3 times or he makes a bad call, so 1250 to win 550 which works 2/3 times, that is ev+, plus when he makes a bad call plus when he has me dominated. So seems ev+ and then good for meta game.

BluffTHIS! · #12 03-13-2005, 08:31 AM

I don't know about your use of the term 'meta-game' here as it means something else entirely to me in which various strategies are only a part (see this link for my view). But as to this play with 22 in this situation, it seems to me you are making a play that is only appropriate with tighter players who fold more often. Precisely since he is a calling station, the only action post-flop you can get that you will like is his calling on a draw or a dogged A high with AK. The problem is that even if he misses a straight or flush draw he can easily make a pair which beats you and call to the river if he is a total calling station. You already stated your strategy against him was to wait for good hands, but this doesn't seem to be one, especially out of position, and you have now instead tried to put a move on a calling station. Regardless of how the results actually turned out (you actually got a good scary flop), I think this type of play will be a long term loser against this type of player.

theBruiser500 · #13 03-13-2005, 08:51 AM

my play might be bad but your logic doesn't make sense. please respond the math involved in my last post. sentences like "he can call to the river if he is a total calling station," tells me something about you, maybe you aren't experienced at poker, maybe you are wasting peoples time here by not fully reading the thread, or maybe you are stupid. i dunno, but in this case the pot is 1000+ and he only has 750 left.

BluffTHIS! · #14 03-13-2005, 09:02 AM

Your response definitely tells me something about you too since you are the one who doesn't fully read other posts. I was talking about your reraise with 22 primarily and whether that was a correct course of action to begin with, not the situation after he calls when only then is the pot 1K+.

Rococo · #15 03-13-2005, 01:16 PM

Bruiser,

If you have 2 to 1 odds, how is betting 1250 to win 550 EV+. Maybe I am not understanding what you are saying.

In any case, I think that the math is a little more complicated than you suggest. I take it that you believed that he would call with any pair after the flop. In that case, I think that you need to factor in the number of times that he is starting with a bigger pair than you. In addition, you have to factor in those instances in which he picks up a draw that essentially is even money or better with your hand after the flop. Two overs with a gutshot, for example, is even money with your hand after the flop, and I assume that this guy calls the flop with that sort of hand more often than not. Of course, there also will be cases where he calls with a very poor draw or maybe a naked ace, which adds to your EV.

I'm not sure what to think about the metagame implications without knowing who else was at the table.

SeattleJake · #16 03-13-2005, 03:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...so it's 50/50, Pot is 1000 on flop, he only hits a pair 1/3 times so I bet 750 and win it 2/3 times or he makes a bad call ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I like the leap here from 1:1 even-money to 2:1 favorite. If he has a 50/50 chance, regardless of whether he paired or not, why wouldn't he call getting 2:1 odds?

I do think it's still +ev though. If your expected win rate when called here is ~46%, and looking at the entire hand as one play:

call*.46*1250 - call*.54*1250 + fold*550

It's +ev when you think he'll call < 84%

If your expected win rate when called here is ~54%, then it shouldn't matter how often he calls. Which is why trying this with 88 or higher would be a better suggestion.