PP Million AK bubble hand

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Unfortunately, your only reasonable course of action here is to try to fold into the money. If the next level is 1,000/2,000 you'll really need about 30,000 at that point to be comfortable about playing your way into the bigger payoffs. That means you have to double through at least 3 times. At this point, just getting some payback for your time is reasonable even though it will feel like the booby prize.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I lost a big pot about 10 hands before and dropped from t7500 to t2700, and that is how I found myself in this predicament.

Sorry, but if you had 7500 instead of 2700, you'd still be basically in the same predicament, just with a bit higher probability of folding into the money.

[DonButtons]

Your options-

Call) If its heads up and checked to you-do a stop and go
Mulitiway pot?-check/fold? So if you fold now will
you make the money?

Push) Never bad to push with ak, unless you have a sure lock on cashing, but like you said, in the long run, just cashing sucks in these tournaments, its the one big hit which pays out in the long term. But what Im wondering is how much a double up here would help you out. Your still will below the avg by 2.5x, so it helps your chances, but barely. And since the next pay out difference is so far away I think the +EV play is to fold, even though a double up here might start a crazy rush to the final table which might prevail in EV.

Fold) Win $900

[b0000000000m]

Just another vote for the laydown.

[SeriousStudent]

See Harrington on "bubble" EV thread, for more on this hand

[RiverDood]

If the math is close -- which most of us think it is -- I think this ultimately comes down to asking yourself: "Why am I playing in this tournament?"

That's going to mean adding some non-economic factors to the mix. If it would be great for self-esteem/vindication to say that you cashed in this major tournament, on any basis, then fold and wiggle into 218th place. Or if your own overall finances are "on the bubble" right now and you really need that $900, then it's wise to fold into the money, too.

If higher finishes in the tournament have a sizable psychic value to you -- beyond the probability-adjusted cash value -- then push and play on. It sounds as if that subliminally led you to push right away, and that's not a bad decision. Heck, even when it didn't work out, you got an interesting bad beat story (four words that hardly ever belong together) and a chance to talk it over with Dan Harrington. That has some value, too.

Of course, if you start playing the state lottery or playing gutshot straights for big raises, then you've let thrill-seeking get totally out of control. In this case, though, the stakes/penalty for taking the riskier road are manageable, and the non-economic gains sound meaningful.