This is the one I really want answered

[private joker]

A hand's value is not just in whether it is best now; it's about whether it will be the best at showdown. For example, on a flop of T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], a hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is certainly not the best hand now in an 8-way pot. Even in a heads up pot, it is behind something like 22 or 64o.

But it has 8 outs for a straight, 7 more outs for a flush, 6 more outs for top pair, and even double pairing the T and J can counterfeit 22 or 64o. It has about 52% equity in a heads up pot, and probably about 36-40% equity in a multiway pot.

Hero's hand in this pot might be the best hand on the flop, but it might not. What we should look at is how likely we are to be the best hand at showdown. No single spade is folding ever, especially a big one (Qs, Js, Ts). Maybe you can fold 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and lower with a raise. If there's another ace, you could be outkicked, but if you aren't, there are many ways for your kicker to be counterfeited anyway (e.g. pairing the 5). With 8 players in this pot, it is highly unlikely you'll win the hand without showing down, with pure aggression alone. So you have a lot of cards to dodge if your hand is best, and you're drawing slim to dead if your hand is not the best. Why pay up to 5BB more just to find out that sobering fact?

Fold.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
but if you aren't, there are many ways for your kicker to be counterfeited anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good point that I did not consider.

[WillMagic]

Definitely an easy fold.

Will

[masonx]

fold, theres no way your playing here against 8 opponents

[krishanleong]

I call and see how the turn develops. I think you have between 15%/25% equity on the flop. A good card on the turn and you'll have 30% on the turn. You need to get away from it if there is heavy action on the turn.

But I think calling 1 in this spot is okay.

Board: As Ks 5s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 18.5606 % [ 00.15 00.03 ] { Ad8d }
Hand 2: 25.6629 % [ 00.26 00.00 ] { Qs6c }
Hand 3: 10.3220 % [ 00.09 00.02 ] { Js5c }
Hand 4: 05.3030 % [ 00.05 00.00 ] { Ts4c }
Hand 5: 10.3220 % [ 00.09 00.02 ] { 5h3s }
Hand 6: 18.5606 % [ 00.19 00.00 ] { Kd2s }
Hand 7: 03.1250 % [ 00.03 00.00 ] { 7h6s }
Hand 8: 08.1439 % [ 00.05 00.03 ] { Ac7c }


---

Krishan

[Nate tha' Great]

I'd call.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Why pay up to 5BB more just to find out that sobering fact?


[/ QUOTE ]

Because I have top pair, the pot's pretty big, and nobody has done anything yet to convince me that I don't have the best hand?

[two_dogs]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure the answer is that we have very few ways to improve our hand, and we are going to make few bets when our hand is best and lose many when our hand isn't best, but my gut tells me this pot is worth fighting for.




[/ QUOTE ]
Sounds like you are saying this is -EV.If you are I agree.
IMHO fold.

[chief444]

The 7 other hands you used are pretty close to a best case scenario. You put 6 of the remaining spades into opponent's hands without giving anyone a made flush. You gave hero the best hand which will often, but not always be the case. And you still only have 18.5% equity...exactly the same as K2o with the 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I think your numbers support a fold more than a call. I would fold here as well. I don't think calling is really bad. But if you're ever going to lay down top pair in a 10 SB pot for 1 bet this is the time. Hero is no where near closing the action either and with this board and 8 players I would expect some flop action fairly often.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking is that the flush draw only comes in 1/3 of the time, almost every time the flush draw doesn't come in we are taking down this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Seriously? He has TP 8 kicker. He has 7 opponents with a bet and call and no folds yet. Do you really believe he just has to dodge a spade to win this "almost every time".