Good fold or money wasted?

[chief444]

The 6-max, and generally most shorthanded games, are more loose and more aggressive. 1/2 6-max is no real exception. If you had a read specific to this/these opponents then I'll buy that but a 3-bet here in general means less at a 6-max table than at a full game, IMO.

[Fabian]

Fancy play syndrome, Anders, fancy play syndrome. This is just not acceptable. No one has really explained why it's unacceptable, and I don't think it's really necessary either, but i'll write down some of my thoughts.

Let's assume for a moment that the 3-bettor only has KJ, J8 or a set. I'd guesstimate this assumption is true about 3% of the time (please don't say "more like 5 or even 9%" anyone, I don't care and it's not important), and even when it is, going to showdown is correct as long as the river doesn't pair the board. You'd lose against 12 hand combinations (KJ), split against 9 (J8) and beat 12 hands (QQ, TT, 99 and 44) a bit more than 78% of the time. The other 22%, you fold the river.

Now, assuming UTG calls behind you when you call, and the river is a blank and it's check check bet call call, the pot is 18BB, so for your turn call to be correct you'd need to win the pot 1 in 6 times or more. If he checks behind on the river it's 15 to 2, or just 1 time in 7.5 times you need to win. This way it's very easy to see that you should at least call even though MP3 is guaranteed to have KJ, J8 or a set. Lose 12, split 9, win 12. 22% of the time (when the board pairs), you fold to the river bet of course, in this example.

That being said, this analysis isn't completely necessary since MP3's hand range is much much wider. One likely holding is top pair which has picked up a backdoor flush draw, or something like A8 of spades, or K3 of spades or something similar. When someone with a good or decent draw picks up a flush draw on the turn it's very common to play aggressively, even more so on higher levels I guess.

Of course, he's also correct to 3-bet with AQo or 94o or basically any made hand, since he needs to charge the ~5 billion draws out there the max to draw him out. This board is very very very very very very draw heavy. Very draw heavy. He could have basically anything.

To summarize: Still an easy turn call if he has the hand range you expect, which he never will. That being said I think it's an easy turn cap to charge the straight draw, and more importantly any flush draws, as much as possible. MP3 will call down with AQ or 94 too.

[Nate tha' Great]

As long as we're being pedantic, some of your assumptions are pretty suspect. KJ is a very, very common cold calling hand for bad players; J8 and QQ are not. There's no way in bloody hell that he has 44. Also the top pair + flush redraw type of hands are unlikely; most players tend to fastplay one pair hands.

Not that it makes the fold all that much better, but I'd expect him to flip up exactly KJ fairly often.

[AngryCola]

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Not that it makes the fold all that much better, but I'd expect him to flip up exactly KJ fairly often

[/ QUOTE ]

(Honest Question from a N00b)

I like calling down here.
Is that wrong?

[chief444]

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Not that it makes the fold all that much better, but I'd expect him to flip up exactly KJ fairly often.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. The fold wasn't horrible in the sense that it's an easy bet/raise/cap the river hand. But I'd say he folded what was the best hand on the turn somewhere between 30-50%. And it is possible that EITHER of the two opponents has KJ. But still calling down is clearly a better option and I think the best option.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Not that it makes the fold all that much better, but I'd expect him to flip up exactly KJ fairly often

[/ QUOTE ]

(Honest Question from a N00b)

I like calling down here, is that wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd still probably cap.

The best argument for calling is that if you cap you sort of have to lead out the river in the dark, which could wind up costing you two extra bets if behind.

[AngryCola]

Wait a minute, I just read the hand again.
I had read part of it wrong.

For some reason I had gotten it in my head that the turn was capped before it got back to the hero.
I would cap the turn, and call a river bet.

I'm not sure why you would have to lead out on the river, but I've been told my game is lacking in certain areas.

That's my line, and I'm sticking to it. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Fabian]

I'll be the first to admit I know very little about 1/2 shorthanded, but when I think of the game and the players I feel most players would call KJ there. And the "bad" players would call with J8 and, I think, definately 44.

And yes I'm sure some of the other hands won't be as common as KJ for example, I just wanted to show some very possible non-straight, non-set hands he could have.

With the players sometimes being so bad on these low limits, I think it's difficult to be very sure in your hand reading. Sure he'll have KJ sometimes, but he'll have lots of other things too.

And yes being pedantic is awesome [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[pokerstudAA]

Wha? You folded the second nuts here. Only KJ beats you. Try to get to the showdown cheaply but I would not be that scared.

UTG could have raised with AA,KK, A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and be waiting to raise until the turn to protect his hand.

Similarly MP might have cold called with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or another AQ hand - even A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] could be getting cute on the turn. He might also have called with QQ, TT, or 99 and have the set - except he is more likely to 3-bet preflop with the QQ.

Even thought KJ is one of the possibilites I would tend to think my 2nd nut straight is good here more often than not.

[jskills]

Fold? So you're worried about KJ?

You've got the second nut hand in a six handed game. You've got to keep firing until your guns are empty. If board pairs or 3 flushes on the river, maybe calling a river bet is as weak as you want to play it.

I have dreams about flopping a hand like that.