AQs vs an Eagle... - Page 2

DeathDonkey · #11 02-28-2005, 05:09 PM

Your in trouble if you get CRed but its fine so far.

-DeathDonkey

Catt · #12 02-28-2005, 10:55 PM

Tough hand. I am tempted to say that you must bet the turn, but as I think about it, I like it less and less.

What does Mr. 18.4/9.2/1.8 call 2 cold with from the SB? Maybe AA-TT, AKs - ATs, KQs, AK (maybe add AQo)? A wider range? Do you think he has a solid read on how you play? Does he raise with a hand like TT or JJ on the flop with only one to act behind him?

I'm doing this by the seat of my pants a bit, but you're behind AA, KK, JJ, and AKs, AKo and AJs, beating QQ, TT, KQs, and chopping with AQs (unless of course the s is [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ) and maybe chopping with AQo unless one is a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

If you bet and you're ahead, the bet could fold him, though on this board with the range of hands I put him on, he is probably calling your bet to see the river (and may call down). If you're behind, you might get check-raised and that would really suck. Do you fold? Getting ~9.5:1 it seems you'd only need ~4.5 outs, but can you find 4.5 outs with the action in the hand? If he calls, and a river blank comes, you're almost certainly checking behind on the river, right? If he calls and a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] comes on the river, are you calling his river bet? Checking behind if he checks?

On the other hand, if you check behind on the turn and he is ahead, you save a bet. If you check behind on the turn and he is behind, you may very well induce a bluff when a blank falls on the river (earning the same amount as when you bet the turn and check behind on the river). If a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the river, you're in the same position you were before with one less bet in the pot.

Again, seat of the pants and at the table I would almost certainly bet this, but after staring at it for awhile, I think I much prefer a check behind on the turn and calling a river bet to get to showdown for one more BB.

mmbt0ne · #13 02-28-2005, 11:13 PM

AA-JJ and AKs all 3-bet this preflop 100% of the time. I wouldn't be surprised to see AKo or TT 3-bet this on occasion either.

Catt · #14 02-28-2005, 11:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AA-JJ and AKs all 3-bet this preflop 100% of the time. I wouldn't be surprised to see AKo or TT 3-bet this on occasion either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right - this is what is confusing.

What possible hands does Mr. Eagle coldcall preflop but not 3-bet? And which of those hands does he raise this flop? Was BB and/or UTG a total donk that Villain thought would stay in for one extra but fold for two more? I can't explain Villain's pre-flop play unless he's trying something really deceptive (or unless the read is not accurate / on a way too small sample size).

EDIT: One possible answer is a smaller PP like 99 or lower, but does he really raise the flop on a two-outer in order to face UTG with 2 cold? And does he call a turn bet or is he more likely to fold to Hero's bet but might bet the river on a bluff if Hero checks the turn.

VBM · #15 02-28-2005, 11:51 PM

my guess is this eagle would defend his blind with an Ax (tho, probably on a short leash; seeing as i'm coming from pretty far back to try a blind steal) and and raise me on the flop to look me up.

anyways, i bet, he folded. I don't know if checking would've been bad; when i started thinking about what i'd do if i were checkraised, i really think i might fold. i'm drawing dead vs a flush, nearly dead vs a set, thin to a chop vs a straight.

way ahead or way behind & i lucked out somewhat if he was holding a diamond, i'm sure i'd get called...

SteveL91 · #16 02-28-2005, 11:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What possible hands does Mr. Eagle coldcall preflop but not 3-bet? And which of those hands does he raise this flop? Was BB and/or UTG a total donk that Villain thought would stay in for one extra but fold for two more? I can't explain Villain's pre-flop play unless he's trying something really deceptive (or unless the read is not accurate / on a way too small sample size).

EDIT: One possible answer is a smaller PP like 99 or lower, but does he really raise the flop on a two-outer in order to face UTG with 2 cold?

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn check is the disturbing part, because it's entirely plausible for it to mean a monster or absolutely nothing.

99 is definitely possible seeing how he got the exact card he wanted on the flop... but I don't know that he'd check on the turn considering how well concealed 99 is/would be and the fact that that flop likely hit hard enough to make people raise/re-raise.

I can't see TT being played this way, but I suppose it's possible; the pf raise coupled with two overcards in the flop really make me question him having TT. I can't see villain calling with ATo, but it's possible as is ATs. Aside from that, I'd probably think AJs or AQ but the turn check is rather odd for the former.

Catt · #17 03-01-2005, 12:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
my guess is this eagle would defend his blind with an Ax (tho, probably on a short leash; seeing as i'm coming from pretty far back to try a blind steal) and and raise me on the flop to look me up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure one should defend the SB when there's been a limper and a raise, but that's beside the point -- I didn't play the hand, Villain did.

If he probably has Ax where x is a non-broadway, then it is probably better to check the turn and hope to induce a bluff on the river -- you're giving him a free card to a three-outer and the pot is small enough that if he hits his 3-outer on the river, it probably shouldn't cause that much heartburn. (If he has Kx, he's got a 5 outer and that starts to hurt a bit more). If he has a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], he's not folding to your bet, which means your turn bet is worth something slightly less than 0.8 BB (i.e., lose at least 1 BB when he hits his flush, but win 1 extra BB when he calls and misses his flush). Put another way, you can't make a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] fold with the bet, but can make an Ax or Kx non-diamond fold. On the other hand, you have a decent chance of inducing a bluff (or just a poor decision) on the river from Eagle-Villain. If you get check-raised (not unlikely, I think) you are folding a potentially winning hand or costing yourself 2 extra BBs if the C/R is not a bluff. FWIW, I would be inclined to C/R this turn on a semi-bluff with a holding that had a moderate (even small) chance to improve on the river if my read on you was a tight-aggressive thinking player.

[ QUOTE ]
. . . when i started thinking about what i'd do if i were checkraised, i really think i might fold. i'm drawing dead vs a flush, nearly dead vs a set, thin to a chop vs a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

And also drawing weakly to a number of plausible hands that might have TP better kicker or two pair. As I said, pretty tough hand and I would almost certainly have auto-bet the turn at the tables, but I'm trying to stop "auto-ing" anything and this hand surprised me a bit when I started puzzling through it. At the forums I have the time to think about it.

Nice hand post!

mmbt0ne · #18 03-01-2005, 12:21 AM

I really don't think he has a flush. Check-raising this flop with a flush draw is retarded, and this player seems to know what he's doing. A flush draw would bet out, trap UTG, and call a raise, then go for a check-raise on the turn. His flop check-raise tells me he's protecting something.

Is he protecting his set against a flush draw? I think it's possible but doubtful. He knows that UTG isn't folding here with 4 to the flush. I really think he's on a lesser A or a high K, trying to buy some outs and maybe knock UTG's baby A out of the pot. Before you 3-bet he has no reason to think you don't have JJ, QQ, etc. and are just auto-betting the flop.

When you 3-bet you're telling him that you're hand is a good one. When the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] comes off, I'd be more worried about AJ or KJ having hit 2 pair than the flush coming in.

zephed56 · #19 03-01-2005, 06:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
for the rating-impaired,
villain is 18.4/9.2/1.8'ish..

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 4 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB raises, UTG folds, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets...

like it? hate it? indifferent?

[/ QUOTE ]
First, I'm assuming he will release a weaker ace after you 3-bet him, he's tight after all.

What's the purpose of 3-betting the flop against this type of player? He'll fold weaker hands and cap hands that beat you.

Why not just call the check-raise against this opponent and call him down, bet when checked to?

Villain would play a set and two pair exactly like this, no?
And some of his hands that have you beat, he would probably re-raise preflop, so you can discount these somewhat. Weaker aces could be played like this too. I'd say you are usually ahead (or have outs against his 2 pair) and you do not want him to fold. Let him continue betting.

Of course, if you think he's paranoid of being bluffed, by all means bet and raise at all opportunities, since he will not fold.