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#12
02-25-2005, 05:35 PM
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Re: stop and go bluff at Prima 10-20 NL
Very nice play. I play in this game too and it calls for big bluffs sometimes. Did you show your hand? Show the table that so they what ur capable of. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#13
02-25-2005, 06:21 PM
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Re: stop and go bluff at Prima 10-20 NL
Id say it was reckless, not necessarily bad, but definitely reckless.
I know for myself, I sometimes fall in love with the great play. You have a read on someone, you know your image, so you try to make the brilliant one time play instead of sticking to the series of smaller solid plays. My question is, why AK? You said he was aggressive and tricky. Are you sure he doesn't have KT, TT, A8? You have a tight image, but expect him to give you credit for T8 out of position? Also, if you think AK, wont you get a similar opportunity, when you think your opponent has a strong, but not quite as strong of a hand? Nice play, but did you have to make it?
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#14
02-25-2005, 07:42 PM
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Re: stop and go bluff at Prima 10-20 NL
Why are you people flaming him for making such a play?
Do you people fail to understand that NL is above all else playing the person, not the cards. Our hero could have 7-2 offsuit in his hand and outplay the button provided our hero has a solid read on the button and can sniff out weakness and make a move back. Sometimes I even wish I could make plays this more often. Sure, it's dumb if I get caught, but that's part of the game and it's what exciting about deep stack NL. If Neon really believes there's a better than 50/50 chance that the button will fold his AK or whatever hand he has and Neon has a good read and understand how his opponent thinks, this river bet is +EV. It's a ballsy play, not a stupid one. Lawrence
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#15
02-25-2005, 07:45 PM
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Re: stop and go bluff at Prima 10-20 NL
[ QUOTE ]
Why are you people flaming him for making such a play? Do you people fail to understand that NL is above all else playing the person, not the cards. Our hero could have 7-2 offsuit in his hand and outplay the button provided our hero has a solid read on the button and can sniff out weakness and make a move back. Sometimes I even wish I could make plays this more often. Sure, it's dumb if I get caught, but that's part of the game and it's what exciting about deep stack NL. If Neon really believes there's a better than 50/50 chance that the button will fold his AK or whatever hand he has and Neon has a good read and understand how his opponent thinks, this river bet is +EV. It's a ballsy play, not a stupid one. Lawrence [/ QUOTE ] What hand would hero play the same way that does beat AK?
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#16
02-25-2005, 09:13 PM
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Re: stop and go bluff at Prima 10-20 NL
He could play TT or T8 that way. Maybe even AK. I really can't see button putting hero on a busted draw when he said his table image was very tight. There is no way in hell a tight player is calling the turn with a draw when the board has already paired.
If I have AK in that situation I am folding more often than not. The percentage of the time that hero has a boat is a lot greater than the percentage of the time he is bluffing IMO, which makes it a fine bluff.
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#17
02-26-2005, 02:25 AM
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Re: wrong
[ QUOTE ]
Why are you people flaming him for making such a play? Do you people fail to understand that NL is above all else playing the person, not the cards. Our hero could have 7-2 offsuit in his hand and outplay the button provided our hero has a solid read on the button and can sniff out weakness and make a move back. Sometimes I even wish I could make plays this more often. Sure, it's dumb if I get caught, but that's part of the game and it's what exciting about deep stack NL. If Neon really believes there's a better than 50/50 chance that the button will fold his AK or whatever hand he has and Neon has a good read and understand how his opponent thinks, this river bet is +EV. It's a ballsy play, not a stupid one. Lawrence [/ QUOTE ] Wrong. He is putting in bets before the river with the intention of betting the river, this he needs more than a 50% chance of a fold for this play to be correct. Unless you are against Bruiser, this play sucks.
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#18
02-26-2005, 07:27 AM
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Re: wrong
[ QUOTE ]
Wrong. He is putting in bets before the river with the intention of betting the river, this he needs more than a 50% chance of a fold for this play to be correct. [/ QUOTE ] Thank you, thank you, thank you. The fold equity on the river push has to be only 50% (roughly, maybe barring the oddball one in a million that opponent calls with worse)... but that is only AFTER hero calls on the flop and turn. Isolating one street in an effort to justify the two before it is bad, naughty, evil poker logic. On the turn, let's say he plans on pushing on any river card. Hero is investing 1840 to win 960. The ultra longshot that Hero spikes a boat, and his push is called by a worse hand, doesn't do a whole lot to sway the numbers. Now, I'm not sitting at the table, but I would probably not feel safe in assuming that I'm winning the pot often enough to justify this line in this hand without a very specific read. I could easily be wrong. This is way too player/game/image specific for me to be certain without being a regular in this/a similar game, or knowing the players involved well. For me, the idea of a hand strategy post is to answer the question: "how did I play this hand?" or demonstrate "I played this hand this way." Just because the river play may, in isolation, garner a positive expectation, is far from enough to conclude that the entire hand was played well. And the criticism of this hand, Lawrence, is not aimed at the river bet and the river bet only.
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#19
02-26-2005, 09:47 AM
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Re: wrong
[ QUOTE ]
Thank you, thank you, thank you. The fold equity on the river push has to be only 50% (roughly, maybe barring the oddball one in a million that opponent calls with worse)... but that is only AFTER hero calls on the flop and turn. Isolating one street in an effort to justify the two before it is bad, naughty, evil poker logic. On the turn, let's say he plans on pushing on any river card. Hero is investing 1840 to win 960. The ultra longshot that Hero spikes a boat, and his push is called by a worse hand, doesn't do a whole lot to sway the numbers. Now, I'm not sitting at the table, but I would probably not feel safe in assuming that I'm winning the pot often enough to justify this line in this hand without a very specific read. I could easily be wrong. This is way too player/game/image specific for me to be certain without being a regular in this/a similar game, or knowing the players involved well. For me, the idea of a hand strategy post is to answer the question: "how did I play this hand?" or demonstrate "I played this hand this way." Just because the river play may, in isolation, garner a positive expectation, is far from enough to conclude that the entire hand was played well. And the criticism of this hand, Lawrence, is not aimed at the river bet and the river bet only. [/ QUOTE ] nicely put. i couldnt have said it better myself. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#20
02-26-2005, 10:18 AM
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Re: stop and go bluff at Prima 10-20 NL
I am curious why you called the flop and why you called with A,Q. I think I would have reraised with these hands. Are you letting the button steal when you have nothing and then not punishing him when you do have something? If so, you are making it very profitable for the other players to fire at your blinds every time.
I am not sure of the river bluff. If he has A,K you are making him laydown a nice hand without representing a specific holding except for maybe the 8. If I was the button there is a good chance I would call thinking, "He is trying to represent the 8 but I just dont buy it given the flop. Why is he firing a big pot bet now if he has a great hand? He is trying to push me off for some reason. I dont like it but I am going to call" I dont like the flop and turn play at all.
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