ICM theory question

[dfscott]

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Is it naive of me to think "It's 5-handed, I have an average stack and A f'n J. Those blinds are mine!"

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Yes, because this is a question about ICM, not a question about whether AJo is a good hand to push here.

[dfscott]

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Push looks good to me. Short handed, so you likely have the best hand. No one has many chips in relation to the blinds. SB will fold unless he has a big hand in which case you're screwed. BB might call as he's shorty, but his calling range is wide, so you would probably still be ahead.

Folding seems like a bad move unless you're happy to just back ITM. Calling would be weak. Raising is tough because any raise would be ~half your stack anyway.

Push.

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*Sigh* I give up. I should've posted this as:

Blinds 100/200
UTG (t1150)
Hero (t1390)
SB (t2010)
BB (t675)

Preflop: Hero is Button with X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Y[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Hero ???

[Scuba Chuck]

dfscott, what are you looking for? The algebra on how to put your equation together?

Essentially what JCM posted is correct, IMO

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You're analyzing two scenarios:

1. Fold

2. Push

Fold is easy. Under push, I would analyze only the most common situations:

All fold
SB calls, you win
SB calls, you lose
BB calls, you win
BB calls, you lose


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From here calculate probability of calls, and what range of hands they would call with. I use pokerstove for this.

Plug the stack info into the ICM calculator (if you need link, you'll have to request as I don't have access to it right now)

Whoala, you should have 5 calculations for your push scenarios. Estimate your probability that all will fold vs a call, and finalize your result. Compare to fold $EV.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
dfscott, what are you looking for? The algebra on how to put your equation together?

Essentially what JCM posted is correct, IMO

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Sorry, maybe I replied to the wrong post.

I just got a bunch of subjective judgements about the hand and the situation when I was looking for a way to calc it via ICM (the situation is invented, not real).

You're correct, eastbay and JCM did give me what I was looking for.

Thanks, all.