Standard Deviation/Win Rate

[jcmack13]

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Your EXPECTED win over this time is $30 x 1000 = $20,000.


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why exactly would 30/hr x 1000 hrs not yield $30,000?

This also changes the results of the SD calculation.

[dana33]

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why exactly would 30/hr x 1000 hrs not yield $30,000?


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Because I'm an idiot savant who can take square roots but can't multiply! (It's funny that no one noticed the error sooner.)

Correcting the error changes the specific numbers -- so that the probability of losing over two years is much reduced. (You'd need to raise the assumed SD or reduce the assumed hours to get the same 2.5% probability of losing that I erroneously calculated.) But the basic approach is still valid.