Why does everyone insist you can't fold Kings preflop?

[scotty34]

Well think of it this way. You have KK. In a full ring, there are 9 other players, and 5 others in a short handed game. The probability of another person getting AA is 1/221, so 9/221 (~4%) in a full ring, and 5/221 (~2.2%) shorthanded. I am going to use the full ring example here.

From the number listed above (whether its right or not is up for debate) of needing to be correct about 90% of the time for this to be profitable. Say you get KK 1000 times, then 40 of these times you will be against AA and can "correctly" lay down KK. 90% of that 40 is 4, so all it takes is laying it down incorrectly 5 times out of that 1000 times you get it in order to make the move -EV.

[Mike Gallo]

I do not think I have ever folded Kings preflop.

[Kaz The Original]

I know players who haven't folded kings post flop.

[theredpill5]

Scotty, I thought about your mathematics there several times and I still don't understand it. If you could explain further or if someone else could explain that further, I would appreciate it. Also, anyone want to answer my previous example about QQ ? Could it be positive EV to always call an all-in with QQ preflop? Given your example, Scotty, then someone will have AA or KK about 10 % of the time in a full ring when you have QQ. You are a slight favorite or big favorite against any other hand. Hmmmm...someone needs to make a simulation program for these questions.

[-Syk-]

[ QUOTE ]
The other times, this player randomly decided to make a poor play like this with AKs or QQ, but it is by far more likely from my experience this player has AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not exactly a poor play if he's making you muck your Kings.

[EliteNinja]

Never muck them preflop unless you cheated and saw your opponents cards (which are AA).

[scotty34]

Yes, I see how it could have been a bit unclear. Here is the basic point I was getting at: if you are willing to fold KK preflop, there are 40 times out of 1000 (4%) where it is "correct" to do so because you are against AA. Based on the assumption that you need to be correct in your read 90% of the time to make the fold profitable, if you folded 40 times, you would need to be correct 36 times. This gives you 4 wrong folds to still be +EV in folding.

Conclusion: If in 1000 KK hands you are dealt, you incorrectly fold PF 5 times, it is costing you money.

[scotty34]

Upon thinking about this further, you will be dealt KK at the same time as an opponent is dealt AA approximately 1 in 5400 hands (1/221 * 9/221). If you never fold KK in your lifetime, how big of a leak could this possibly be?

[axioma]

your line of reasoning is completely flawed for a few reasons, not least because it does not take into account the preflop action.

if you use bayes theorem to calculate the P of your opponent having aces given the action described by the OP for inctance, you will see it is of course far higher than 0.04.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

There are times when I'm at least 90% sure I'm against Aces preflop.

No offense, but according to Dan Harrington, nobody can be that sure.