New question on Pot Odds: Sklansky vs. Harrington

[Geddon]

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Anyway, the consensus on this thread seems to be that the $100 you put in to call counts in the pot odds numerator, which is what I had always thought.

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No, that's not right. You don't count YOUR $100 into the odds.

I thinkt he confusion comes from how the question is inturpreted. When I read "$300 in the pot and $100 to call", I took that to mean there wasn $300 IN THE MIDDLE and someone ELSE had bet $100, so the total amount you stand to win is $400.

[Bill Kolter]

This is exactly my question. I may be mis-understanding what I've read.

But if you adhere to the concept of "Once it's in the pot, it's not your money anymore," (Can't tell you how many times I've heard that), then 4-1 seems correct.

[Bluegoose75]

I guess it depends on if they are talking about odds or probabilities. If you ask the question about what is the probability that in a 52 card deck, completely randomly shuffled, what is the probability that a diamond will be the first card off the top then the probability is 13/52 or 1/4. However the odds against it happening are 3:1. So maybe (since I don't have either book handy) one of them is using probability language and the other is using odds against?

[Kevin K.]

It's been awhile since I've read Theory of Poker, but I don't recall pot odds being explained in this manner. If they are, I'm sure it was a typo/misprint, etc. Regardless, Harrington is correct.

300 in the pot and 100 to call equals 300-100 or 3-1 odds. By definition, pot odds are the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to the amount you must put in to continue.

Adding your call to the numerator is incorrect.

[Bill Kolter]

My apologies to all. At the risk of complicating what I thought was a fairly simple question, let me rephrase the situation as I understand it.

You're heads-up. The pot starts out at $200. First-to-act bets $100. There is now $300 in the pot. It's on you, $100 to call.

If you call, there will be $400 in the pot. Do you stand to win $400, or do you stand to win $300? Is the money you will bet money you will win, or does it not count?

Let's try a thought experiment... same situation: heads-up. It's $100 to you, and there is $300 in the pot. You raise it to $200. There is now $500 in the pot. Your opponent re-raises $200. There is now $700 in the pot, and it's $200 to call. Are the pot odds 7-2, 9-2, or are they only 5-2 because "you can't win back your original raise of $200?"

In other words, does your own bet affect pot odds? I have to conclude that it does, thus your bet should be included in the odds, whether you're about to make it or you have made it. Pot odds don't apply if you're not in the hand....correct? Thus, if you are considering what the odds are IF YOU PLAY, then it seems to me that the bet you are ABOUT to make must count. It will certainly count on the next betting round. The question, it seems to me, is not "What are the pot odds at this point in time before I bet," but "What are the pot odds vs. my chances of winning IF I BET?"

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
This is exactly my question. I may be mis-understanding what I've read.

But if you adhere to the concept of "Once it's in the pot, it's not your money anymore," (Can't tell you how many times I've heard that), then 4-1 seems correct.

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No, it doesn't seem correct. It's not in the pot yet, so how can it impact the odds you're getting to call? Go read ToP p. 35 again. Then read the rest of the section. You're confused about how DS explains things. You seem to be thinking of a situation where you bet $100 into a pot that is already $300, which means you're offering your opponents 4:1 pot odds to call. If your opponent bets $100 and the pot is $300 *including* his $100 bet, you are getting 3:1 pot odds to call.

If you have a copy of SSH by Ed Miller, try looking at that instead. Ed writes: "If you must call a $4 bet, and the pot currently contains $40 (including the $4 bet), then your pot odds are 40:4 or 10:1."

[Bill Kolter]

Thanks for the clarification. I will re-read the Sklansky section. I appreciate your taking the time to look it up.

[Bill Kolter]

Could be. I'll re-read both and find out. I've probably just stirred up a whole lot of foam over a simple mis-understanding. Again, I apologize.

[Yosemite Mark]

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...
If you call, there will be $400 in the pot. Do you stand to win $400, or do you stand to win $300? Is the money you will bet money you will win, or does it not count?


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Look at it this way: you are deciding if you should risk $100 to win the $300 in the pot. The $100 is not in the pot yet. That makes the odds 3:1.

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Let's try a thought experiment... same situation: heads-up. It's $100 to you, and there is $300 in the pot. You raise it to $200. There is now $500 in the pot. Your opponent re-raises $200. There is now $700 in the pot, and it's $200 to call. Are the pot odds 7-2, 9-2, or are they only 5-2 because "you can't win back your original raise of $200?"


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Once the money is in the pot, no longer consider it yours. The only significant numbers are: What is in the pot now ($700 in the second part of your example), and what do you have to risk now to get a chance to win it (Here, $200). Thus the odds for your second example are 7:2.

[Bill Kolter]

Gotcha. All is clear.

Thanks! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]