KK on the button

[Quad fours]

Your right jaxup, he did call, but are we still all against the turn raise.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
Based on my read of the UTG player, he would not 3-bet without the nuts. He was way too passive. I am surprised that the turn raise is the major factor in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then all your turn raise did was ensure he didn't bet again. I still don't think your raise is going to force somebody to fold here, unless you have a read that he is crazy weak-tight, but you said your read was passive.

Edit. Haha, I am still against this turn raise here. Sorry. Maybe I'm wrong, what do others think?

[Quad fours]

Jaxup, I don't know if that turn raise was so bad. I've got nine outs to the flush, queen outs to the straight, and the king outs.

[jaxUp]

9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]s help
the other 3 J's help
I give 1 out only for the kings as they may give a str8.

= 13 outs.
U hit ~ 28% of the time.

You are putting in 1/3 of the money. This is clearly not like, say, pumping a flush draw on th flop with 3 or 4 callers.

What helps you is that You have a chance to make others fold, but I think that you will make BOTH of them fold very seldom, like maybe 1 in 20 or less.

I am not sure how these two figures interact, maybe somebody who is more math savvy can help. However, I do think that it is at best neutral EV, and probably slightly -EV

[Quad fours]

For what its worth, the river was the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG showed AJo
CO folded to my river bet