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#11
02-14-2005, 02:16 AM
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Re: JTo party 15..
I might 3-bet the flop, check/fold the turn, fold the river unimproved. Or just fold on the turn.
I think a move here by the SB is unlikely based on the board- how can you count on that flop completely missing four limpers? So I'd give him credit for at least a decent queen, who checked the flop to test the action, planning to do exactly what he did: raise if the bet came late to shut out any gutshot/2nd pair/backdoor draws in between, and hope you were on a ten, a bluff, or a draw. 
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#14
02-14-2005, 09:38 AM
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Re: JTo party 15..
First, I would not be in this hand. Calling with JTo is just asking for trouble. Second, I don't see why you don't just call him down. Sure, you could value bet the river but odds are in favor of him having one of the 3 remaining queens instead of one of the two remaining tens. Also, what hand, T-no kicker, is he playing? Sure, it is the SB, but...
There is also the vague chance he might chk.rz the river. I think that the odds that you have the best hand are acceptable, but the odds that he has a hand that is better than yours AND that he would call a river bet with it are very slim. I think you are more likely to be value betting for him. I often use this tactic when I have a questionable hand. I'm not estatic about betting it, but I'm half-hoping the opponent will bluff it or think his low PP is worth a bet now. They bet there quite often. If you want evidence as to why I don't play JTo with so many callers, this is it. You wind up with 2nd button, a lousy kicker, and a hand you can't bet. <shrug> CSC
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#15
02-14-2005, 09:50 AM
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Re: RESULTS
I guess you missed a value bet. I wouldn't sweat it, and I'd do the same thing next time to. You may have felt bad about it, but I think you played it well enough. Raising in the SB with second button to clear out the no pairs and the second buttons better kicker is something I do often enough. However, I do the same thing with Top pair/no kicker in the SB. And I sometimes fold second button in the SBs situation. All that adds up to his having Q-low kicker more often than T-lowkicker. Good play I say.
One thing though, were you really planning to fold to a river bet after calling a turn bet? That would be a misplay. Either fold the turn or call him down, don't search for 5 outs on the river for the cost of a BB in a pot that doesn't have the odds. CSC
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#17
02-14-2005, 01:05 PM
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Re: RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
I guess you missed a value bet. I wouldn't sweat it, and I'd do the same thing next time to. You may have felt bad about it, but I think you played it well enough. Raising in the SB with second button to clear out the no pairs and the second buttons better kicker is something I do often enough. However, I do the same thing with Top pair/no kicker in the SB. And I sometimes fold second button in the SBs situation. All that adds up to his having Q-low kicker more often than T-lowkicker. Good play I say. One thing though, were you really planning to fold to a river bet after calling a turn bet? That would be a misplay. Either fold the turn or call him down, don't search for 5 outs on the river for the cost of a BB in a pot that doesn't have the odds. CSC [/ QUOTE ] did you see this guy's vpip#'s?? astro is right, he's paranoid...if i call the turn and he STILL bets the river KNOWING i am going to call i fold because he wants me to call...he's not bluffing here. as you can see from his river check its clear he wanted a cheap showdown and i would have been correct to fold to a river bet against this opponent. as in no limit, sometimes you have to cal lthe turn with a marginal hand and fold to a river bet. when you make a call on the turn, your opponent either knows you're calling the river or thinks he can get away with a bluff...THIS player i was against was one i did not think was capable of bluffing a river after i called the turn...i would have had no problem laying this down on the river to a bet. he wouldn't even bet Q-lowkicker on the river imo... also, there is no question i missed a value bet. but that is only AFTER the fact...this oponent does not call a bet from me if he's beat anywhere near 52% of the time. i dont think i'd ever consider this a value bet and i 100% agree with you i'd do it the same way again...except next time against an opponent like think i may just fold the turn after calling the flop c-r. -Barron
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#18
02-14-2005, 01:14 PM
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Re: JTo party 15..
[ QUOTE ]
First, I would not be in this hand. Calling with JTo is just asking for trouble. Second, I don't see why you don't just call him down. Sure, you could value bet the river but odds are in favor of him having one of the 3 remaining queens instead of one of the two remaining tens. Also, what hand, T-no kicker, is he playing? Sure, it is the SB, but... There is also the vague chance he might chk.rz the river. I think that the odds that you have the best hand are acceptable, but the odds that he has a hand that is better than yours AND that he would call a river bet with it are very slim. I think you are more likely to be value betting for him. I often use this tactic when I have a questionable hand. I'm not estatic about betting it, but I'm half-hoping the opponent will bluff it or think his low PP is worth a bet now. They bet there quite often. If you want evidence as to why I don't play JTo with so many callers, this is it. You wind up with 2nd button, a lousy kicker, and a hand you can't bet. <shrug> CSC [/ QUOTE ] in position i feel perfectly comfortable playing that hand in that situation. especially with the given info. i am now at apoint in my game that if i don't get good at handling marginal situations to maximize ev, i'll never improve. so i loosen up a lot in position because i'd rather have the options the button/co give me if i do have a marginal holding...i'll play a LOT of hands on the button there in that situation. sometimes it may be -ev, but if it is, its only slightly so but the long term gain of feeling out marginal situation in terms of bettering myself at the poker table is worth more to me. there is a story about one of the current pros...maybe scotty ngyuen (sp?)...its one of those guys who plays lots of hands and does really well with them..i read this story on these boards so it may or may be not be 100% accurate. so once a month scotty would go to his local cardroom and play in a 10/20 or 5/10 (i forget which) and play almost every hand to get used to how people adjusted to him and how to maximize value from VERY VERY weak holdings...JTo in this position is like the nuts compared to that lol... but basically the point is, if you dont learn how to play these situations now...when will you? i'd rather do it at the limit i'm currently beating and feel very comfortable at rather than dropping down and playing every hand like scotty (thats clearly a real crazy way to learn but apparantly it works if its true). so put me there again and i call again (unless the limpers ALL have the sb's stats, in which case they both likely have AA,KK) -Barron
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