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#11
02-13-2005, 01:08 AM
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Re: Flop nothing but draws vs a moneybag
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Raise preflop. No, I don't like your flop call at all. [/ QUOTE ] Seconded. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't very constructive criticism. I can defend my call and I'd LOVE for someone to tell me why I shouldn't have made it. [/ QUOTE ] Pot size 4 sb Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 
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#13
02-13-2005, 01:37 AM
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Re: Flop nothing but draws vs a moneybag
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Raise preflop. [/ QUOTE ] Entity, would you mind filling me on why? This isn't in SSH. Did you notice hero is in MP? [/ QUOTE ] MP3 really isn't middle position to me. It's late position, coined by Tommy to be the "hijack seat." I raise because I'd like to buy the button, but if I don't, my hand plays well multiway -- but really I'd like to isolate the limper and increase the likelihood of taking it down with a single flop bet. On the flop, you need ~7.36SB in the pot to call (5.5 outs wants about 7.3:1), and you're getting 6:1. With only two opponents "implied" odds can't increase this to a call, especially when one is a moneybags who didn't raise preflop, so I really doubt he likes his hand so much that you'll get multiple bets postflop. Rob
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#15
02-13-2005, 01:42 AM
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Re: Flop nothing but draws vs a moneybag
[ QUOTE ]
If the turn is a T, you raise the turn, he calls. You bet the river and he calls  4/47)*(3+2+1)= +.5106BBIf the turn is a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], you call and miss on the river: (9/47)*(-1.5)*(35/47) = -.2139BB If the turn is a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], you call and hit either a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or T on the river then raise and he calls: (9/47)*(12/47)*6 = +.2933BB The turn is a blank: (34/47)*-.5 = -.3617BB Overall: +.2283BB (the math could be wrong on this, correct me if it is) Ok, after two revisions, I think that's right. [/ QUOTE ] There is absolutely no guarantee he calls a turn raise and a river bet. If a moneybags bet this flop with K3s, I can't see him calling a turn raise. Rob
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#16
02-13-2005, 01:46 AM
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Re: Flop nothing but draws vs a moneybag
Also, none of these accounts have taken into consideration the times we get 3-bet on the river when he is full. I know the chance is small, but we lose a lot of bets when this happens.
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#18
02-13-2005, 02:03 AM
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Re: Flop nothing but draws vs a moneybag
[ QUOTE ]
Pot size 4 sb Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Actually, it's 6 sb and you're closing the action with a gutshot to the nuts and a backdoor flush draw. I don't see the problem with calling here.
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#19
02-13-2005, 02:06 AM
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Re: Flop nothing but draws vs a moneybag
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Pot size 4 sb Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Actually, it's 6 sb and you're closing the action with a gutshot to the nuts and a backdoor flush draw. I don't see the problem with calling here. [/ QUOTE ] So you need about 7.5:1 and you're calling getting 6:1. With 3 opponents, do you really think this is fine? Rob
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#20
02-13-2005, 02:07 AM
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Here\'s your constructive criticism
You are not getting correct odds to call the turn. You got 4 outs + the runner runner for a total of 5.5 outs. The pot is offering you 6:1 and you need about 8:1 to make this call worthwhile.
The fact that sb is a TAG makes raising pf even more important. You don't want to play against tags so a raise would eliminate him and also buy you control of the pot.
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