Can't wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO

[tbach24]

OP said he would've lead the turn with aces. Therefore we should have no problem with calling any raise since by his range of hands we're aahead of all of them. While betting the turn may have 0 EV, checking it must have -EV because of reasons I've explained.

[coltrane]

why'd you bet the turn?

[tbach24]

Read my responses. Not betting the turn is the worst move here.

[Wayfare]

Your advice is actually really bad, and the authoritative tone it is written is makes it worse. I hope you think about this a little bit more and then repost [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Challenge the river call assumptions.

[coltrane]

doh, sorry, didn't read the replies.....basically, as was already discussed, the turn bet has no purpose against this villain....he's drawing to two outs and he's more likely to call a river bet than a turn bet (true, he still may not call).....also, given hero's image, it's not a bad thing if he checks this turn and gets to showdown his hand....

[tbach24]

Hands we are possibly up against (according to OP's read):
AA: No, as OP stated, he would've fired again on the turn
KK-JJ: Yes, and we have all of these hands dominated
If we check behind, what's your plan if...
a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits?
a K/J hits?
a Q?
The reason to slowplay is that you think that your opponent will catch up to a good but not better hand. I don't think a rock will be bluffing/picking off any bluffs on this river. Any hand that makes him better beats us and if he has QQ and hits a 1-outer, we're screwed.

If I'm totally off, please explain why?

Sorry for coming off as a total know-it-all.

[cero_z]

Hi Wayfare,

I understand what you're saying, but this is not as cut and dried as you claim, and thus tbach's advice is not terrible. It's entirely possible that the super-nit old man is completely done with the hand when his turn bet is called, unless he hits a set. I mean completely done.

Any one of us (3 or 4 posters) who happened to be playing in nit-mode for whatever reason, would take this opportunity to move the kid who's playing every hand off of his Ace in this hand; we'd realize that whether our bet smelled bad or not, he'd have to give us credit for a hand, and the pot would be ours virtually every time. But there are plenty of dudes out there who don't want any part of that sort of "risk". If this guy is one, then tbach is right that you will not make another dime from him. Since you can only lose money if any more of his goes into the pot, you might as well eliminate that small chance of him spiking his 2-outer. A different opponent would mean a different answer. I also concede that we don't KNOW that we've pegged the old guy correctly, but tbach's reply was clearly operating on a certain reasonable assumption.

With all of that out of the way, I believe AZK bet TOO MUCH on the turn. I would've bet 100 or 150, if I was sure he wouldn't check AA or AK here. This would give him a chance to make a mistake. 300 is too much.

[cero_z]

Hi AZK,

Whoa, horsey! Yes, you stepped out of line here. The problem as I see it is that despite sitting with this guy for several hours, you really don't know enough about him to make this play. Also, you don't have the right hand for it.

[ QUOTE ]
He throws in a flock of green chips, I think 6 or 7. I flat call. I plan on taking this away from him on the turn assuming any diamond, J, 9, 8, T hit.


[/ QUOTE ]

No good, if this guy isn't the super-straightforward rock you have him pegged as. If he's actually skilled, he'll anticipate your move, and take the pot away from YOU on the turn, or trap you if he has a better hand (AA, AK). Turn is a blank, and he checks it. That's what I'd do against you with a hand that beats you, given your history at this table. So, you really don't need to bet 300 here. 100 or 150 will do it if he's spineless, and you're definitely folding if he raises either bet.

Finally, I want to talk about your hand. If you've read your opponent correctly, then this:

[ QUOTE ]
plus I want to flop the nuts and take him for 1300 when he flops 2nd nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

How are you going to do that? Did he re-raise you with KJs? or are you counting on a K J T flop? Then, he'd have the 3rd nuts (KKK), and he wouldn't get busted with it. He can't have a hand that'll make the 2nd nuts when AcQc makes the nuts.

[freemoney]

I totally agree with Wayfare in this situation, you only put yourself in a terrible situation, hes not gonna have a weaker ace, hes not gonna check AK (unless he can get tricky), AA you are dead and anyother hand he has 2 outs, check the turn, let him draw to 2 outs, then if he checks you can make a river bet of ~200. The turn bet is unnecesary and omly gets you into trouble.

[Wayfare]

Cero, I appreciate the even handed analysis.

However, I think that against most opponents who are rocky rock the call preflop would be wrong, since you are only hitting a pair 1/3 of the time and really have to fold just overcards when you know he is paired up big.

If he is thinking passive/agro rock and feels pissed off enough at your play to take the pot away from you, you should take very much care when you committ this much to a hand that you really cannot back with your stack. It doesn't sound like he will, but some old dudes like to school the "young gun" and our hero sure sounds like he is playing like one.

If he is passive thinking rock, he will not call a turn bet. He very well might call a river bet. I might fall into this category when I am not playing my A game. With KK I would fire this flop, and check the turn and see how the hand developed.

I don't see protection of a two-outer as trumping the concerns (and even possible upsides) of situations described above. 150 might work on the turn, but 300 is definately sub-optimal.