SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story - Page 2

Wetdog · #11 02-09-2005, 02:59 PM

I don't know what the moral of the story was supposed to be, but I'm sure Doyle, PH or most any pro would never go all-in on a draw early on. I made that mistake long ago and it makes me almost paranoid about pushing.

Beavis68 · #12 02-09-2005, 03:15 PM

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In the tournament section of SS2, Doyle tells a story of Phil Hellmuth raising with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

the flop comes Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (may not have been a five but it was irrelavent).

Phil bets, gets raised all in and folds!

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I remember when this happened. It was a few years ago in the tunica $10K event, and I was at the next table over. If I remember it correctly there were three players in on the flop and phil called a raise from one of them; then when the action came around again the first guy went all-in and both folded. The guy who moved all-in had top two.

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What was your opinion of the play Paul?

freemont · #13 02-09-2005, 03:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In the tournament section of SS2, Doyle tells a story of Phil Hellmuth raising with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

the flop comes Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (may not have been a five but it was irrelavent).

Phil bets, gets raised all in and folds!

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I remember when this happened. It was a few years ago in the tunica $10K event, and I was at the next table over. If I remember it correctly there were three players in on the flop and phil called a raise from one of them; then when the action came around again the first guy went all-in and both folded. The guy who moved all-in had top two.

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Just out of curiousity, Paul, would you have called there? (I'm sure a few of the details are fuzzy, but it seems like you have as good of an idea as any about all the variables.)

Voltron87 · #14 02-09-2005, 03:29 PM

Phil will fold in these situations early for this reason: He thinks the small favorite he is in these drawing situations is not as large as the favorite he is over the whole tournament.

If I win 80% of my headsup matches against you and you go all in to my A6 and show me KQ, I should not call, assuming we are only playing once. Do you see why?

OrangeKing · #15 02-09-2005, 03:32 PM

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I don't know what the moral of the story was supposed to be, but I'm sure Doyle, PH or most any pro would never go all-in on a draw early on. I made that mistake long ago and it makes me almost paranoid about pushing.

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Don't say never - there are draws that are a whole lot stronger than made hands I'm sure you'd go in with. For instance, if Phil held the KQd with the JTd on board, I have a feeling he would have had no problems going all-in.

kuro · #16 02-09-2005, 03:35 PM

The problem is that PH lays down hands where he has the edge so much that people play back at him with junk and take down pot after pot. Then Phil takes a bad beat (which are going to happen to almost everyone at some point) and his stack isn't big enough to let him survive. You've got to be willing to gamble it up and go for the big stack early or you just don't have much of a shot in these big mtt.

nut case ace · #17 02-09-2005, 04:05 PM

Bottom line is this, he has no more than a 5% edge on his opponent and the only way he can win is with the best hand. maybe if the guy had raised before him, then he could have gone all in with the possibiliy of his opponent folding increasing his overall EV for the play. However, i'm sure he knew he most likely had a small edge and knew that he'd have better opportunities to outplay his oppenents later on. Also, as far as what kuro was saying is concerned, i dont think that what you were describing is a flaw in phil's play. maybe his nine NLHE bracelets can back me up on that one. If you can get reads on your opponents as well as he can, you don't need to gamble when you know you'll get a better chance later.

mcteecho · #18 02-09-2005, 04:08 PM

That's just not true. I know from experience that you can win big MTTs without "gambling it up and going for it early", and lots of others on this board will have had the same experience.

binions · #19 02-09-2005, 04:23 PM

The worst hand he can see is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] With his flush draw blocked and 2 of his straight outs blocked, Phil is 36% against that hand. But, there is 1/1081 chance that hand is out.

He is 40% against A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Pair and flush draw. Again, 1/1081 chance that hand is out.

He is 42% against a set and Ax diamonds (except A9 and A5). There are 9/1081 possible hands that have a set, and 6 possible Ax hands not A9 or A5).

He is 50-50 v. AA. 6/1081 AA hands out.

He is over 52-58% against 2 pair, top pair hands, and KK.

He is 66% against any other KJ or a pair+lesser flush draw (6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ), and 85% against lesser, unpaired flush draws.

slickpoppa · #20 02-09-2005, 05:12 PM

I think that this is a good fold. Not because Phil is probably a small favorite and could find a better spot, but because he is most likely NOT a small favorite to the range of his opponents hand. I think that even an OESFD is an underdog to the range of hands that someone would go all-in with on such a board so EARLY in a tournament.