Can anyone actually get away from this hand???

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
I am really surprised by the weak-tightness of the responses. I'm guessing your post title is lending itself to this type of "scared analysis".

You are getting much too good a price preflop to consider folding. You have Q5s, so obviously you can't raise. That only leaves one option.
If you weren't closing the action (i.e. the raise came from LP and there were some limpers inbetween) then I can see a fold, but I'd probably still call unless I thought that there was a chance that it would be limp-reraised.

On the flop, you are getting 3.11 to 1. You are getting more than enough implied odds to make up for the small lack of pot odds to see the turn.
If the board was paired, then I can see folding.

On the turn, so long as the board wasn't paired, I can't imagine any betting action that would allow you to get away from this hand.
For the poster that said that your all in call was horrible. All I can say is....huh??? You really think that he's drawing dead to the bigger flush more than 76% of the time???

I think you played this well. The only thing I would have changed is a little larger check raise on the turn after you get the LP caller in between. The naked A is a very likely card to be out in this spot, and it's likely that whoever has it will not be able to fold, so you have to charge them for it. I would have checkraised all in on the turn.

-SossMan

[/ QUOTE ]

Cha-CHING. This post gets the honor as the first sensible response to the original post.

I'll boil it down even further:

No, you can't actually get away from this hand.

What happened to you guys, anyway? The monsters under my bed all turned out to be imaginary.

And even if there really WAS one, that wouldn't mean I would never go back into my bedroom.

[hurlyburly]

Experience will teach you that implied odds in Limit vs. No Limit don't have the same expectations and a hand like this will be -EV in the long run. It's really not strong enough to call even a min raise.

That being said, I think it's something like 18-to-1 against there being another flush out there, so you should play it for what it's worth once you're in the hand. That big raise by LP actually has me thinking 2 pair with the As trying to get you off your hand. I'd likely loose my stack on this one, too.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
That being said, I think it's something like 18-to-1 against there being another flush out there

[/ QUOTE ]

really...18:1? Not 17, not 19...18.
care to elaborate?

[hurlyburly]

I'll have to find the math again. It's something like 6% for 2 people in a 10 person game to get 2 cards each of the same suit. I don't know the formula, so I'll research for it and see. I'll post it in the probability forum and let the gear heads go to work on it.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll have to find the math again. It's something like 6% for 2 people in a 10 person game to get 2 cards each of the same suit. I don't know the formula, so I'll research for it and see. I'll post it in the probability forum and let the gear heads go to work on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

but that's based on random hands. You have additional information with the action that has occurred. I would put it at somewhere like 60-40 that the OP has the best hand.

[hurlyburly]

I agree. Its much more likely that the all in reraise here is from a lower flush or a cold ace of spades often enough to make this all-in call a good one. I really hope he won here or got sucked out on rather than lost to a hand he was behind to all along.

All hands are random on the deal, but this is a rare situation where he got to play a hand that only really had flush value, made it, and then everyone was telling him that he was most likely dominated. I didn't agree with his PF call of the min raise, but the way he played it post flop looks great.

[hurlyburly]

Ok, I think I figured it out:

10 ppl = 20 cards; 20/52= ~38% of the deck
5/20 = 25%; # cards for each suit for a 25% chance of catching any particular suit
6.25% = # of times you get 2 cards of the same suit.

This is where I get lost. Now there are 3/18 cards left in the suit you have, giving a second person a 2.77% chance of having a hand of the same suit. Now since we don't take 2 off the top, how do the numbers work together to determine the chance of both people getting suited hands of the same suit? Averaging it? Average is 4.51% so I guess it's safe to assume that ~1/20 times I get a suited hands, someone else has a same suited hand? Then since I'm queen high, I fear 2 over cards, so is it (2/13)*(1/20) for a .7% chance that I'm dominated?

That seems both overly simple and wrong, so I'd sure like some help here. If that's the case, then i'm not playing my weak flushes strong enough.

[wjmooner]

well played. Soss Man's response summed it up quite nicely. More importantly, I'm surprised anyone on this board would dare criticize playing Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Whatever happened to the Granny Mae love?

WJ

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
well played. Soss Man's response summed it up quite nicely. More importantly, I'm surprised anyone on this board would dare criticize playing Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Whatever happened to the Granny Mae love?

WJ

[/ QUOTE ]

too many new posters...
I for one, never fold the granny mae.

[djhoneybear]

Personally having played hands like this several times, I'm guess the caller has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and another non-spade card. He figures he has TPTK (maybe two pair). If he has two pair he has 7 cards that make him the nut flush and another 4 that make him a full house. He's put alot of money in the pot and is going up or down with this hand. If your flush draw was 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] then I would be much more worried but only two flush draws beat you.

Sure you could be beat but its not going to happen often. All this nonsense about folding this hand is silly. You want to play cheap cards from the blinds.