When do you get over "The Fear"?

[mosquito]

Here is something to think about:

Have you ever looked back at a hand, and realized
that you played it great?

Have you ever been shocked to realize that you just
made an advanced 'book play' that you had never made
before, and it worked?

Guess what..... you are noticing that your game
is growing, and the confidence should too.


There is no shame in fear of the unknown (moving up),
but being aware that your game is in a constant state of improvement should help a lot.

Best, mosquito

[The-Matador]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't know if you are a winning player at this point. The long term is much longer than 9 months. Just keep playing good poker and study the game and you will most likely be fine.

You don't have to be a world class player, just a little better than your current competition.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is such a load of crap. 9 months is MORE than long enough to establish you as a winning player. The level of ignorance on this board on the issue of the relevance of runs of results is staggering. If you're a winning player over 20,000 hands, you're going to be a winning player if you keep doing what you're doing. Stop propagating this ridiculous notion that anything under a 100,000 hand sample size is irrelevant and people who have been playing winning poker for the better part of a year don't know whether they're winners. It is simply incorrect and foolish.

[Sooga]

Last year I made 3000+ bets at 2/4 and I still have a feeling that it'll all go away after a bad run. I play skurred. Right thurr.

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're a winning player over 20,000 hands, you're going to be a winning player if you keep doing what you're doing.

[/ QUOTE ]

is there even a point in telling you you're wrong? this is a dumb thing to write. if everyone has a very high winrate with a low SD, you're right.

if anyone has a lower winrate and/or a higher SD, your statement is mathematically false.

[Harv72b]

"The Fear" goes away the instant that you learn to understand and accept variance. It's that simple.

And this is one point where I agree with Matador, whether or not it's mathematically sound. If you've been winning for 9 months, you are a winning player. I've been winning for less than that, and I have maybe 30k hands under my belt...does anyone want to convince me that I'm not a winning player yet? Bull<font color="black">s</font>hit. I'm sure that someone here could mathematically "prove" that Doyle Brunson does not yet have enough hands to demonstrate beyond a doubt that he's a winning player.

Anyway, getting back to the point...when you can weather a 150 BB downswing and understand that it's only variance, and that you have to keep playing the same sound, aggressive poker that's been winning money for you in the past, and that it is inconceivable that your losing streak will continue indefinitely...that's when you're over the fear. And, incidentally, being confident enough in your own play to keep raising AJo from UTG even though you haven't hit a single flop in the last 2 hours will go a long way towards minimizing those downswings.

[bilyin]

I find it inconceivable that a player can win consistently over a 9 month period and not be playing +EV poker.If the long run is really that long, then you never know if you are a winner because the player and the game do not remain the same over such a long period of time. Why don't we just say you never know if you are a winner until the day you die. Then if you are still a winner on that day, you know you are a winner.
Just answering someone stupid enough to say daily playing over 9 month is short term makes me feel stupid. Why do I bother?

[pokerrookie]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it inconceivable that a player can win consistently over a 9 month period and not be playing +EV poker.If the long run is really that long, then you never know if you are a winner because the player and the game do not remain the same over such a long period of time. Why don't we just say you never know if you are a winner until the day you die. Then if you are still a winner on that day, you know you are a winner.
Just answering someone stupid enough to say daily playing over 9 month is short term makes me feel stupid.

[/ QUOTE ]


Exactly!

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it inconceivable that a player can win consistently over a 9 month period and not be playing +EV poker.If the long run is really that long, then you never know if you are a winner because the player and the game do not remain the same over such a long period of time. Why don't we just say you never know if you are a winner until the day you die. Then if you are still a winner on that day, you know you are a winner.
Just answering someone stupid enough to say daily playing over 9 month is short term makes me feel stupid. Why do I bother?

[/ QUOTE ]

did you read what i wrote? do it again. keep reading it until you comprehend it. a losing player can win money over 20k hands. it's easy. just think about it.

the fact that you believe i have to be "stupid" to believe this mathematical fact is ironic.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
did you read what i wrote? do it again. keep reading it until you comprehend it. a losing player can win money over 20k hands. it's easy. just think about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's mathematically possible to flop a royal flush three times in a row. That doesn't mean it's likely.

[Sephus]

when did i say or even imply that anything was likely? as your SD goes up and your WR goes down for your 20k sample, the probability that you are actually a losing player goes up. for some people this probability can be quite high (like if you made .5 bb/100 for example).