The Last Frontier: Undeveloped AK.

[Mike Gallo]

You played the hand fine.

I would not fold the river either, I might even bet the river most of the time.

[Mike Gallo]

Not in this spot.

[Nick C]

Here's my thinking on the river decision in this hand.

Some reasons to bet-fold:

(1) Villain might fold a better hand to a bet. In this case that seems unlikely to me, but maybe something like 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] will now give up, after all the strength you've shown. I doubt it, though.

(2) A worse hand will call. This, too, seems unlikely, though I guess something like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] might make a crying call, once in awhile.

(Incidentally, the possibility that Villain will bet hands that beat Hero but check behind with worse ones is a reason the bet-fold line is often better than check-calling when out of position on the river, sometimes even when you think you're most likely beat. But I don't think this concept applies much in the posted hand, which is why I don't really like the bet-fold line in the posted hand.)

Some reasons to check-call:

(1) While Villain most likely won't call with a worse hand, he might bluff with one if checked to. A missed flush draw is a hand that some players might try a bluff with here. (However, how likely is that to be what he has? KQo is a popular preflop cold-calling hand among many Party 2/4 players. To a lesser extent, so is KJo, which does make KcJx and KxJc a possibility. People cold-call a lot with Ax hands too, so that can't be ruled out, since Villain might play aggressively with a club kicker on the flop, though the likelihood of this increases with the size of the club.

(And, of course, other hands that Hero beats are also possible, if the player in question is very loose and aggressive preflop and on the flop. But I don't think we should make "LAG" our default read against an unknown player.)

(2) Hero thinks his hand might be best but is worried about getting pushed off of it with a bluff-raise on the river. A desperation river bluff-raise by Villain doesn't seem terribly likely to me in this hand, but you never know. (And, in the posted hand, what Villain might think is a desperation bluff with, say, 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], will still beat Hero. So that's part of the reason I'm saying a bluff-raise is unlikely. Even if Villain is making such a play, his hand might still beat Hero's.) In any event, though, the bluff-raise possibility is a reason to choose check-call over bet-fold sometimes, on those occasions where you don't feel you can call a raise (or occasionally even when you would call a raise but are up against a tricky opponent and don't like your hand enough to pay two more big bets to get to showdown).

(3) Villain may check behind with a better hand he had no intention of folding and give Hero a free showdown. If Villain won't fold 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], that's one such potential holding.

Some reasons to check-fold:

(1) Hero's hand is unlikely to be best. If Villain bets, Hero's hand is not good often enough. I think in this hand, that quite possibly is true. I am tempted to call, though, because of the busted flush potential. Villain did only show strength once during the hand, prior to the river. However, the clubs may have slowed him down.

Also, (2) The potential for Villain to check behind with a better hand he wouldn't fold is a benefit for the check-fold line (in addition to the check-call line).

[Mike Gallo]

Please explain why.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
I would not fold the river either, I might even bet the river most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet? Why would you do that when you can induce a bluff? If you bet, better hands will call, worse hands will fold...

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I would not fold the river either, I might even bet the river most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

For value?

[Alexthegreat]

I would consider calling the flop raise and leading out on the turn and river, if he just calls the turn...I would check-fold the river unimproved if he raised the turn....He should be more inclined to give up on a mediocre hand if you stop n'go, as it looks like more of a real hand here....

[jason_t]

Why bet the river? If I'm ahead, I'm not getting called. If I'm behind, I might be raised. I open myself up to a bluff raise. If I check, I might get a free showdown or I could catch a bluff.

[Mike Gallo]

If I plan on calling a bet, I would much rather make the bet.

Although in some spots, I consider betting an unimproved AK a value bet.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
If I plan on calling a bet, I would much rather make the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

In general, I agree. But not in this hand, on this river.

[ QUOTE ]
Although in some spots, I consider betting an unimproved AK a value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

So do I. And I know occasionally some such instances occur on the river, and I wish I were better at recognizing those.