fold set of 2's on the flop? - Page 2

snapfc01 · #11 02-05-2005, 02:59 AM

thanks for the replys... i thought i played it correctly but wasn't sure what everyone else would say... i got very unlucky and mp+1 had the pocket 3s... the bb had A4... no diamonds(must have too much money to blow on poker).

bigredlemon · #12 02-05-2005, 03:12 AM

depends on your stack size. If you have enough to work with, you don't need to push.

snapfc01 · #13 02-05-2005, 03:17 AM

i don't need to push... and if someone in front pushed and there was a caller i would fold... however... why let a draw see another card? if someone with diamonds or a 4/5 is gonna outdraw me i'm gonna make sure they are risking their whole stack to do it ... right?

bigredlemon · #14 02-05-2005, 03:40 AM

because your goal is to survive. If a turn isn't a diamond, you can use the rest of your chips to push a flush chasers off their draws. The only people that can call another pot sized bet on the turn would be someone with top pair strong kicker, who is drawing dead, and exactly who you want to stick around.

If a diamond falls, you can evaluate whether making a full house will be justifiable based upon stack sizes and implied odds.

The more choices there, the bigger edge a good player has. If you push all in, you're letting luck do all the work. The diamond is as likely to come on the turn as the river (equal harm to you), while chasers are willing to pay more to see the turn than river (implied odds), so it makes sense for you to charge them a large amount for the turn, and shut them off there. You are going to be losing some equity doing this, but it allows you to survive with a very playable stack if they hit their 1-5 shot.

snapfc01 · #15 02-05-2005, 05:00 AM

i agree with the idea that a good poker player has the most edge with more choices... however... u also said players will call more to see then turn due to implied odds... however if we move in there there are no implied odds to be calculated... the pot was big ... i wanted to chase them out there... figured a draw would fold to a reraise which would put them all in. (not trying to fight on the issue... just ?ing some thought)

schwza · #16 02-05-2005, 05:52 AM

you shouldn't fold this hand even if the third diamond comes on the turn. you have a set right now, and people *very* frequently wind up in raising wars with top pair / marginal kicker. this is why flopping a set of 2's with A2x is great - you can get possible get 2 people to stack off with TPGK and two pair.

you are going to get the chips in, so don't give the draws a (relatively) cheap chance to see the turn. get all the chips in now, and make calling with a draw (except maybe combination draw) a bad mistake. you're very likely to get all-in heads up against someone with one pair (basically no outs) or two pair (up to 4 outs twice = 16%), with a bunch of dead money in the pot. that's an excellent result.

sorry you ran into middle set, but just because you lost middle set to bottom set doesn't mean you should even consider folding on similar situations in the future.

FWIW, i would also limp in here, and if i wind up losing all my chips to set over set, then so be it. it's still incrediciblly profitable to flop any set, so i'm okay losing my stack once in a very long while.

bigredlemon · #17 02-05-2005, 04:44 PM

A lot of flush chasers will call a pot sized bet on the flop, which is very very bad odds on their part. A smallish bet will also string along some pairs that are drawing slim/dead. It's very +EV for you.

Also, if you shut everyone out everytime you hit a set and there's a draw, you aren't getting the implied odds to limp in and try to hit a set in the first place. If you had top pair top kicker, you wouldn't try to push top pair worse kicker off his hand on the odd chance he hits two pair, so why push flush draws off when they're getting only 1-5 odds and they're paying 1-1 to chase it?

snapfc01 · #18 02-05-2005, 07:49 PM

i completely agree with you again... which is why my first raise was pot size... however... when i was reraised the pot was over 1k already and i only had 1200 left... why just call another 200 instead of push? there is a huge pot if they fold and i'm quiet happy with a 1k pot when i don't have the danger of be outdrew... and if they want to try to outdraw me i need to reraise the pot to make it another bad decision correct? which would mean move in...?

snapfc01 · #19 02-05-2005, 07:52 PM

thanks for the encouragement ... i am still new to nl... long time limit player

UncleDuke · #20 02-05-2005, 08:08 PM

I like how you played it also. Sure it makes sense to avoid what looks like a coin flip when the pot is small and the blinds aren't a major issue yet, but this looks like a situation where you're winning considerably more often than you're not, the pot isn't so small, and if you do lose your stack, you can just join the next sng and try again knowing you made a reasonable play and got beat.