55, flopped set, two check-raise attempts, river fold

[mtdoak]

Lead out this flop. No reason to CR here. Smells like overpair city. Bet and they will do the raising and reraising for you. The only hand your worried about is JJ. On the turn, i bet and just call the reraise. Your either way ahead or drawing to 1 out. Eek. That ace scares me. However, I still call here. Even with 2 bets cold. Hands you are worried about: AA, JJ, 10-10, KQs (Probably diamonds) You are ahead of AJs, KK, QQ, J10s, and 44, all of which could be possible here. I make the crying call here, even though I'd say your behind 80% of the time.

[Chicanist]

does the fact that CO, who appears to be a good player from stats at least, isn't fazed by a check/3-bet slow anyone down here? based on his cap + PF action i'd narrow his hands way down to something like AKd or JJ -- is this way too weak-tight of me?

[btspider]

PF i can understand the worries, but CO's positional raise will not be a cap worthy hand most of the time. at worst, the pot will lay me 14:3 if he caps or 11:2 if he doesn't cap. i have to make up about 5-8 SB's postflop (plus some more to account for a set losing).. that doesn't seem too difficult.

the flop check-raise or not probably doesn't matter. no one is folding. i thought CO would bet his JJ+/AK here, so i went for the check-raise. if a flush hits or straight hits, so be it. i cannot protect my hand, so i'm going for value. i thought he'd 3-bet overpairs or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].. allowing me to cap.

on the turn, the check-raise is debatable. A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would try for a free card, but QQ/KK/AA is *much* more likely than that one holding. so i felt the second check-raise would succeed its fair share.

once MP1 check-raises the T, what do you guys put him on? once CO and Button wake up on the river, what do you put them on?

folding in big pots is often not correct.. and yeah, set over set is rare, but what are you putting these guys on that i beat? here i am facing *THREE* different river aggressors, one who probably has AA 75% of the time, one who likely has JTs/TT/JJ and the other who could have KQ some of the time. getting either 15:1 or about 12:1 (if capped, i'm not closing the action as someone thought) on my call doesn't seem like enough, but it might be closer than i first thought.

[Warchant88]

Fold PF.
Bet the flop.
Bet the turn.
Crying call on the river.

[TimmyMayes]

I think the biggest mistake was calling preflop. While you hit the set this time calling this many bets preflop with a prospective hand is not recommended. Also when a guy whom you've already defined as one of the better players at the table does some of that preflop betting it gives you more cause to get out.

[ QUOTE ]

crap... if CO raises MP1's bet, i'm probably toast vs AA. button's 3-bet looks like an idiot AJ who can't read the action.. or an aggro (on flop) KQ? do i have the 4th best hand? surely not the best, so i fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting point (one i missed initially, came to and found it in your post already). Something you didn't think about though maybe. Would it be that horrible of a bet with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]to put a reraise in on the button hoping for a free card with your diamonds/backdoor straight draw? I don't think so. Also if you put the button on AJ (a hand I suspect...) you can use math to cut down the possibility of the CO having AA or JJ to exactly 2 combinations. However. I think the only hands he could raise the river with are either AA or KQ. Math says KQ is 15 to 1. Now lets look at his other actions pretending he has KQ.

Preflop: CO Raises
KQs - Highly likely play
Flop: Caps the flop to your check raise.
KQ suited in diamonds - possible as his cap ends the betting and may fold someone but....odd.
Turn: This turn bet removes the inkling of a "free card" play. But the call means he has something.
KQs - Now with a flush draw and straight draw and over cards he has a monster draw. Which could be further supported by just calling the check raise.
River And the reraise meaning he has his hand.
KQs - Textbook raise with kq here.

There is a lot of evidence to suggest you are beaten. AA or KQ with KQ feeling more likely to me....

What did he have?

CHeers,
Timothy

[btspider]

yeah, button could have KdQd and raise that flop. that's just one hand. any other KQ would be pretty aggro to do that.

CO could have KdQd as well, but the PF cap makes AA more likely.

--------------------

results:
CO - AA (he didn't cap)
MP1 - TT
Button - AK (even dumber than AJ....)

i would have been 3rd best.. i'm trying not to be results oriented, but does KK/QQ from CO really raise this river?

[Entity]

I think anyone advising you to fold PF is off here. You're getting 10.5:2 to call two, or 14.5:3 if it gets capped, which it won't too often (maybe ~40% of the time). Either way, you're looking at needing to make up 5-8SB postflop, which will be easy with this hand. Overall if we say you'll need 10SB on the whole to make up for the call, since occasionally you'll lose with a set and such, it's going to be really easy to make this up postflop on the average.

I think your river fold shows a lot of discipline, and I think it's close -- but you won't be good enough often enough on the river to win this one, I don't think.

I do think a check-3bet would be a good play on the turn. Yeah, he'll have JJ and TT, but he'll have JTs or ATo or AJs a lot more often, and be playing it stupidly.