Misplayed on every street?

[bobbyi]

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My theory was this: I'm representing 2 hands on the flop; a draw or the Ten.

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I agree with this. Those are definitely your most likely hands on the flop.

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When the Ten hit the river I thought I had a 75% chance he'd fold.

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If your opponent had an overpair, I would expect him to either reraise the flop or raise the turn. As you say, you look to either have a draw or a ten, and either way he is beating you with an overpair (or two pair or a set). So when he just calls the flop and turn, it looks to me like he can't beat a ten. Given that, the second ten doesn't really change anything, from his point of view. It is essentially a blank. If you were beating him before, you still are. If you were on a draw, you just missed. Plus, from a bayesian point of view it's less likely you have a ten. So I don't see why the ten hitting the river would make it easier for you to bluff. If he does have an overpair or something else that a ten could have just beaten, there's no way he's folding it for one bet when you could easily be on a busted draw. I just don't see what you are bluffing out. The only hands are AK/AQ, but again, in those cases the second ten doesn't help you any more than an offsuit deuce.

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I reevaluated afterwards and decided he wasn't folding at all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] He's getting, what, 8-1?

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That's how I see it. But, on the other hand, Fianchetto is right that both check-calling and check-folding kind of suck here. It's just a bad situation to be in on the river. It probably doesn't matter too much what you do here because all options kind of suck in their own special way. Often when that's the case, it means that you screwed something up on an eariler betting round to get yourself into a bind, but I don't think that happened here since you played the hand fine (although I would generall three-bet preflop, as others have said).

[steveyz]

I think it's fine actually. I've had similar opponents call me down here with smallers aces unimproved in such a situation.

[1800GAMBLER]

I hate the idea of a 3 bet preflop. I call preflop.

I really hate the river bet, if he sees the river with Ax he's seeing your cards. He called the turn getting 7.5:1 with likely tainted outs (not that any of these players think this) which means he's also calling your river bet (he's more likely to think, well, hell, i'm at the river now). Eff the idea of a value bet too.

If i'm semi-bluffing, which i'm not doing against a player who plays 30% of his hands and raised preflop, i'm doing it on the turn.

[Buckshot]

800Gamblor was the most vocal about not 3-betting preflop. I think this is a high variance play but could be profitable in this particular situation since most of the players were loose.

My mentor used to tell me that I had issues with trying to win every pot I was in. It was some syndrome that I coined before but I seem to forget now. But that's what I was thinking when I bet the river, I can't win if I don't bet.

Turns out I was right this time. My opponent had KQo

~stephen

[bunky9590]

Did I say river desperation bet? I meant to say Value bet.

ni han bud.