10+1 Hand - where did I go wrong?

[adanthar]

Folding the turn is probably wrong but so is raising the river.

The least hand UTG could have, other than a horribly played 9, is a playable jack. There are not many of those that you beat right now.

[ColdestCall]

Adanthar, I like your posts and usually find myself in agreement with you. Could you elaborate on why you think folding the turn is wrong?

[adanthar]

He probably didn't check a king, so other than the rare set you're afraid of exactly J9 or QT (and maybe aces).

He's betting a lot more than those here, including a pair+draw or a worse jack. UTG+1's flop check and turn call tells you he's either drawing, has exactly QT or is far behind you (so, probably dead money). You're getting over 3:1 and ought to at least call unless you have a good read.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
He probably didn't check a king, so other than the rare set you're afraid of exactly J9 or QT (and maybe aces).

He's betting a lot more than those here, including a pair+draw or a worse jack. UTG+1's flop check and turn call tells you he's either drawing, has exactly QT or is far behind you (so, probably dead money). You're getting over 3:1 and ought to at least call unless you have a good read.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

I would probably raise to 125 the following reasons:
- Get rid of the 2 players behind me who may decide to call 55 with Qx or Tx.
- Value bet the bettor and/or caller if they are playing a J or 9.
- Charge the bettor and/or caller if they are on draws.
- Learn that I can safely fold if one of them plays back at me.
- Give myself the option of checking behind on the river.

You are definately giving up EV by calling, IMO. Is it worth it to just call and avoid risk in the early going? Maybe.

[mungpo]

Lets look at the possible hands that Villian could have possible had dealt to him.

Lets assume that Villian plays ABC poker. He raises with big cards and limps with moderate hands, overall plays tighter than your average party poker player.

These are a broad range of hands, remember this player plays big hands with a standard raise.

AA to QQ – Didn’t raise UTG.
TT to 22 – Limp situation possible.
AK – Didn’t raise UTG.
KJs to JTs – Limp situation possible.


Flop: Ks 9c 2h

Everyone checks through. Villian hit nothing on the flop or slow playing, which is quite common at these levels.

Hands that could be ruled out: QQ, KJs. I suspect villian might have raised with these hands on the flop.

Turn: Jh

Villian could have QJs or JTs and now suspects that he has the best hand. Villian bets 55. Might be possible for villian to have KJs. I might have raised here with AJ, as I have medium pair with top kicker. Since hero only called, lets move on to the river.

River: Jc

Villian bets 200 on the river. Lets assume the only hands villian could have are: KJ, QJ, JT, KK, 99, 22. You might be beat, but it’s worth a call.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed.

I would probably raise to 125 the following reasons:
- Get rid of the 2 players behind me who may decide to call 55 with Qx or Tx.
- Value bet the bettor and/or caller if they are playing a J or 9.
- Charge the bettor and/or caller if they are on draws.
- Learn that I can safely fold if one of them plays back at me.
- Give myself the option of checking behind on the river.

You are definately giving up EV by calling, IMO. Is it worth it to just call and avoid risk in the early going? Maybe.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this line of thinking. The problem I think OP will have tho, is that his chipstack is now t630 on level 1. Leaving him with 510 chips on level 4 if he reverts back to super tight. Meaning Now he's probably a little loose chasing cards to scramble back to a normal chip level.

IMO, 10+1er should either fold pre-flop, or should have folded to the turn bet. Keep the post flop strategy simple.

[Bigwig]

The turn is iffy. I'm less afraid of the person who bet 55 than the caller. I may have let the hand go here.

Now, on the river, there is no value in a reraise. You're only getting called by hands that have you beat. Reraise was a bad move.

[spentrent]

Why not bet the flop? Is this not kosher vanilla 2+2 $10+1 poker? Frankly I'm surprised no one's mentioned it!

[Scuba Chuck]

Is this a serious question? Do you think betting the flop here 6 handed is +$EV?

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm less afraid of the person who bet 55 than the caller.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly you make an overcall here with nothing but middle pair. From our lessons in limit you must have a better hand to make an overcall than to call an initial bet.

I let go of the hand with the caller in between me and the bettor.

Spiking trips on the river just sucks.