Comments please O8b hand

[Matt Ruff]

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(Without the pre-flop raise, I think it's an easy fold to a bet on this flop).

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Even with the pre-flop raise -- which I think was a mistake -- does it really make sense to hang around with only middle pair when there's a flush draw on board?

-- M. Ruff

[Beavis68]

I believe that the pot is large enough that is it reasonably profitable to draw to the low with back-up. It definitely is not without the PFR.

[3rdEye]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it better to limp with this sort of a hand from EP, to encourage worse hands to limp in behind you? I'm reading Cappeletti right now, and that's the sort of advice I think he gives.

[Buzz]

Hi Matt - I don’t like the pre-flop raise much either.

If you stick around with Ah2s3cJd after a flop of 6dJcKd, although there’s some oblique chance of either winning for high-only (as after 2h7h on the turn and river), or scooping (as after 4h5h on the turn and river), I think you stick around mostly because of the runner-runner low draw.

The odds against low being enabled for A23Q are pretty easy to figure. There are 240 ways for A-2-3-Q to catch a low after this K-J-6 flop. (9*16+16*12/2 = 240). 750/240 = odds of 3.125 to 1 against making runner-runner low. That corresponds to a probability of 240/990.

It’s more difficult to know how these opponents will play if the turn and river are favorable for Hero.

There are 20 unfavorable cards on the turn. Thus there are three possibilities:
• a. 440/990 Hero gets an unfavorable card on the turn and folds to a bet on the third betting round.
• b. 310/990 Hero gets a favorable card on the turn followed by an unfavorable card on the river and folds to a bet on the fourth betting round.
• c. 240/990 Hero makes the nut low.

• a. Since Hero is last to act here, the first possibility costs only 1 small bet. If the turn is unfavorable, Hero simply folds to a bet and loses no more.
-1*440/990 = -440/990

• b. Hard to say what will happen on the third betting round if the turn is a favorable low card. Assuming there will be no raises on the third betting round, if the river is unfavorable, Hero simply folds to a bet and loses a total of three small bets (starting from the point where the action is on Hero in the second betting round).
-3*310/990 = -930/990

• c. Hard to say what will happen on the third and fourth betting rounds if the turn and river are both favorable low cards. Assuming all three opponents who stay to see the turn also stay to see the river, and assuming no more raising, Hero will win a total of 25 small bets if Hero scoops. However, although scooping is not impossible, it is pretty far fetched. More likely, Hero will win all of low or a share of low.

• c1. If Hero wins all of low, Hero will win 10 small bets, starting from the point where the action is on Hero in the second betting round.
• c2. If Hero gets quartered for low, Hero will win 2.5 small bets, starting from the point where the action is on Hero in the second betting round.
• c3. If Hero gets sixthed for low, Hero will break even, starting from the point where the action is on Hero in the second betting round.
• c4. Hero is only going to get eighthed for low about one time out of 1000 and the financial impact is not much different from getting sixthed. Accordingly, we can reasonably include getting eighthed as part of getting sixthed.

How often will Hero get quartered or sixthed for low? That depends on how Hero’s opponents will play after this flop. If Hero’s opponents will stick around with A2XX, A3XX, 23XX, or A23X after this flop, then Hero will get quartered and sixthed more often than if Hero’s opponents give up on their low draws after this flop - unless someone playing primarily for high after this flop incidentally has a low draw to A2XX, A3XX, or 23XX.

Hero started with nine opponents. If we just consider A2XX, with nine original opponents, assuming nobody who got dealt A2XX would fold before seeing the flop, Hero would average facing nobody who also had A2XX 569 times out of 1000, one opponent who also had been dealt A2XX 337 times out of 1000, and two (or three) opponents who also had been dealt A2XX 54 times out of 1000. It would be something like that. (569, 337, 53, and 1).

Let’s put c1, c2, and c3 together.
10*.569 + 2.5*.337 + 0*.054 = 6.53.

I think we’ll be properly considering quartering and sixthing effects if we use 6.53 small bets as the amount Hero will actually average winning when low becomes enabled and Hero qualifies for low.

Now, putting a. b. and c. together,
-1*440/990 -3*310/990 +6.53*240/990 = +1077/990 = e.v.

It all hinges on how much would be in the pot if both the turn and river were favorable. With only two opponents calling on the third and fourth betting rounds, Hero would only collect an average of 5.04 small bets when making low. In that case,
-1*440/990 -3*310/990 +5.04*240/990 = +1077/990
-440-930+1210 = <font color="red">-160/990 = e.v.</font>

Beavis knows his opponents better than we do. If he thinks three of them will chase to the river and pay off if he makes the nut low, and if he thinks there will not be a raise on the third betting round, then he has favorable odds to pay the one small bet on the second betting round and see one more card.

I think you make your money for your draws in limit games from opponents who chase after the flop and pay off on the turn and river. I think if you have enough of these opponents who will pay you off on the later betting rounds, plus enough money in the pot on the first and second betting rounds, you may have favorable odds to draw to runner-runner lows such as this one.

Without the pre-flop raise, I make it <font color="red">-508/990 = e.v.</font>

(scratch: 7.5*.569+1.25*.337-.67*.054 = 4.65257
-1*440/990 -3*310/990 +4.65*240/990 = -508/990)

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Steve-o]

here's the responses i gave beavis on a different forum

It's iffy because if you hit on the turn you are really paying 3 sb's to win about 10 sb's. which is about 3 to 1 on a hand you will make less than 30% of the time.

if you hit the turn you will ALWAYS have to call the the turn bet. add in the counterfeit and quartered times and I don't like it.

however if you had top pair or middle pair+a runner runner flush or more low straight possibilities it's a borderline call if not OK.

even if you hit 2 lows you can't make a straight other than 23(456) if the low card was a 4 instead of a 6 you have a good chance of making a straight to go with your nut low draw if a 1235 comes on the turn


later in the discussion

look at it this way beav,

final pot will be about 22-25 sb's.

so you will win 11 or 12 sb's.

however 7 of them will come from your stack (5 post flop). you're risking 3 bets postflop to win 6 or 7 bets profit

Suckers chase low hands thats why good players win.

[Beavis68]

So steve, how big would the pot have to be before you would chase the low with back-up?

[Steve-o]

you'll get there 26% of the times so we need at least 3 to 1 on our money (i would want a little more to call here though), not counting quartered possibilities. i would say i want at least 15 SB's in the pot in your scenario, but I would also like 3+ opponents in the pot post flop to protect against quartered situations and increase the pot further in the hand.

15 sb's on the flop will give you a final pot around 23-25 bets. so you would win about 12 Sb's for your 3 risked or about 4 to 1 on your money.

More importantly like I said in my other post, there is not much profit in this hand in a 3 way post flop scenario. you're going to win 10-12 Sb's, 7 of which will be yours

Really with almost zero high possibility the pot would have to be fat preflop.

the flop is 1 bet, but can you fold if the turn is a low but now it is bet and raised with the possibility of a re-raise?

[Buzz]

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It's iffy because if you hit on the turn you are really paying 3 sb's to win about 10 sb's. which is about 3 to 1 on a hand you will make less than 30% of the time.

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Steve - I agree it's iffy.

But I think you may be figuring the hand odds incorrectly.

There really are two groups of low cards for Hero.
• aces, deuces, treys
• fours, fives, sevens, eights

There are nine cards in the first group and sixteen cards in the second group.

If hero hits a card from the first group on the turn, then there are 16 ways to make his hand on the river.

If hero hits a card from the second group on the turn, then there are 24 ways to make his hand on the river.

Putting those together,
9/25*28/16 + 16/25*20/24 = 0.63+0.53 = 1.16 to 1.

If you're going to use a 3 small bet basis, then I think you should make the odds against Hero's making low 1.16 to 1 rather than 3 to 1.

And instead of winning 10 bets, if you consider quartering, sixthing, and eighthing effects, I think Hero will average winning closer to 6 or 7 bets than 10 bets.

But the 10 bet basis is iffy anyway. The 10 bet basis assumes all three of the opponents who stay in to see the river will pay off at the showdown if the river is favorable for Hero. If only two of them pay off at the showdown, I think Hero averages a loss rather than a gain.

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if you hit the turn you will ALWAYS have to call the the turn bet. add in the counterfeit and quartered times and I don't like it.

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I don't like it either, but if Beavis has his three active opponents pegged correctly and if they will all pay off when he does make the low, I think he has favorable implied odds to see the turn. It is the combination of the raise on the first betting round, seen by five players, plus the promise of three opponents paying off on the river that gives Beavis favorable implied odds to draw after this flop. I could be wrong, but that's what I think.

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however if you had top pair or middle pair+a runner runner flush or more low straight possibilities it's a borderline call if not OK.

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I agree having reasonable prospects for high would take the iffiness out of the equation for Hero.

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even if you hit 2 lows you can't make a straight other than 23(456) if the low card was a 4 instead of a 6 you have a good chance of making a straight to go with your nut low draw if a 1235 comes on the turn

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I figured the low straight was remote enough (and very well might not win anyway) to not consider it in my approximation. My thinking is the low straight seems a trivial factor in the decision. What is key to the decision, I think, is knowing whether or not all three of those players are likely to pay off at the showdown. Knowing that is a poker sense thing, not a poker math thing.

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final pot will be about 22-25 sb's.

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I think Hero gets killed here if that's all there will be in the final pot. I'm figuring the final pot has to be 30 small bets (including Hero's seven). But although Hero will have a total of seven small bets in the pot, I'm figuring the two bets he already put in the pot on the first betting round are not his anymore. Starting at the point where the action is on him in the second betting round, he's only putting 5 more bets in the pot.

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Suckers chase low hands

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I think that is true. However, if Hero is in a game with suckers who will chase and then pay off on the fourth betting round, such that Hero can count on three bets on the fourth betting round, even if the river is favorable for Hero, then I think Hero has favorable odds to play.

Thanks for your continued interest. This is something worth having well worked out ahead of time, because it's not an uncommon situation.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[domester]

No malice intended on my post, Buzz. It's just that it seems to me as if you can always find enough things bad about a hand/flop to fold it unless you have the current nuts with more than one redraw. I think I understand the idea of pros always looking for reasons to fold, but at some point, don't you shut yourself out of potential winning hands by being so demanding of every card you see?

[Steve-o]

your math is a little off, there are 21 ways to make his hand on the river not 24. 3 Aces, 3 twos, 3 threes, 4 fours, 4 fives, 4 sevens. assuming the turn is an 8 but it doesn't matter. the overall chance to get there is right around 26%.

there is no promise of 3 players paying off the river bet I would be surprised if the river bet wasn't heads up.

there are too many what ifs in your scenario, it is quite possible that with the low made every one checks to hero.

also look at what happened on the turn, a 2 came what if it gets raised on the turn? can you fold? it is not a guarantee that this costs you only 3 SB's.

you say that if if he is playing in a game where suckers chase the low then he will get paid off. but isn't he a sucker chasing? and wouldn't that mean he is likely to get quartered?

O8 is a game of scoops, I can find much better value than this hand.

A little phrase I like is; winning half a pot is like digging a hole with a shovel, waiting for a backhoe to show up. If he has more high potential, even longshots I would chase, but I'm not chasing for 1/2 a pot.