Party 15-30 88 hand

[William Jockusch]

I like the flop checkraise.

The turn was a bad card for you. I would check and call.

The river bet is obvious.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn was a bad card for you. I would check and call

[/ QUOTE ]

umm...why exactly?

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop checkraise.

The turn was a bad card for you. I would check and call.

The river bet is obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Turn check-call is awful. Mostly because you won't get the chance to call, because a huge percentage of the time he'll check behind.
-James

[William Jockusch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop checkraise.

The turn was a bad card for you. I would check and call.

The river bet is obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Turn check-call is awful. Mostly because you won't get the chance to call, because a huge percentage of the time he'll check behind.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree pretty strongly. Opponent's flop play looks a lot like overcards. No way at all to tell whether those overcards include a jack or not. Also your opponent could have KQ, QT, or hearts. Many of these times, if you check he will bet and the money will go in anyway. And if you are lucky, he might even bluff with something like AK.

If you bet and are raised, you are probably behind. But by betting, you have made the pot so big that you need to call with your 6-outer.

But if you check and your opponent bets, you have a reasonable chance of being ahead as your opponent could be semibluffing. So this call is a lot better than the other one.

[DeeJ]

I agree that it looks like overcards; AJ is a possibility which along with the hearts risk as you suggest would lead me to check-call at the turn rather than spend the extra bet on the c/r.

[ggbman]

I think you played this well

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
No way at all to tell whether those overcards include a jack or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes there is. We have probability.

[William Jockusch]

Probability indeed.

I threw this into Poker Stove. I gave opponent my own list of starting hands from four off the button. (I'm not going to list them here, but I tend to play moderately tight -- my VPIP is 19% at 8-10 handed 15/30 tables.)

Stove said Hero's hand had a 53% chance of winning on the river.

But now things get murkier -- we have to adjust opponent's hand based on their flop play. Since we don't know how opponent plays, this is hard to do. For instance, would this opponent fold AQ because they might be reverse dominated? Would they fold QJ because of the lack of showdown power? Might they sometimes check the flop if they didn't flop anything? Might they flat call the flop raise with AA or a set?

There are too many variables, and I don't see how a mathematical analysis could proceed.

I will say that the 53% figure suggests that check/calling is not "terrible". Check/calling is taylor made for situations where you have no idea whether your hand is good or not.